NSÍ II v Víkingur II prediction · 1. Deild

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

NSÍ II 0–1 Víkingur II VÍKINGUR II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Víkingur II win~~63%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.206

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.276

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Víkingur II win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Víkingur II was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 20–17–63
1′KICK-OFF NSÍ II v Víkingur II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Víkingur II win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
45′HALF-TIME NSÍ II 0–0 Víkingur II
46′We said Víkingur II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 21–28–51
46′SECOND HALF NSÍ II 0–0 Víkingur II
50′We said Víkingur II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 21–30–49
55′We expected about 4.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–32–47
60′We said Víkingur II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 20–36–44
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Víkingur II win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
67′We said Víkingur II at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 18–43–39
68′Víkingur II score on 68′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–15–82
68′We published Víkingur II at 63%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 3–15–82
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' NSÍ II 0–1 Víkingur II
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Víkingur II win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Víkingur II win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
73′72′: S. P. Nielsen on the scoresheet for Víkingur II, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–84
75′We published Víkingur II at 63%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
82′We published Víkingur II at 63%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Víkingur II win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
89′We published Víkingur II at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME NSÍ II 0–1 Víkingur II
FTNSÍ II 0–1 Víkingur II · Víkingur II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Víkingur II are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NSÍ II 20%, draw 17%, Víkingur II 63%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on NSÍ II v Víkingur IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

NSÍ II win20%

Draw17%

Víkingur II win63%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NSÍ II

Víkingur II

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Deild (Faroe Islands)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Víkingur II	26	+29	60
7	NSÍ II	26	−23	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · víkingur ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

63% The market57%

Us63%

~~Market~~57%

We make Víkingur II a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NSÍ II v Víkingur II~~1.58 – 2.84

~~Form · last six in 1. Deild this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 60~~7 v 2

~~The market · Víkingur II win~~57% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Víkingur II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NSÍ II win	20%	25%	−5
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Víkingur II win	63%	57%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	81%	76%	+5
Both teams to score	74%	71%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	93%	90%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	63%	58%	+5
NSÍ II or draw	37%	43%	−6
NSÍ II clean sheet	7%	–	–
Víkingur II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.5%

0123450 3.6 4.9 4.5 3.2 1 2.1 5.6 7.5 6.9 4.9 2.82 4.4 5.9 5.4 3.8 2.23 2.3 3.1 2.9 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NSÍ II down, Víkingur II across0–5 goals a side shown (91.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 805 1. Deild matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Deild matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.5% of games this season, across 130 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.70 goals a meeting; 10 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NSÍ II at home: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Víkingur II away: 3.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for NSÍ II, 2.84 for Víkingur II. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.70

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 10

~~Both scored~~10 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NSI 1–4 VIK · VIK 2–1 NSI · NSI 2–3 VIK · VIK 1–2 NSI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Deild this season · since 29 Aug

NSÍ II

LWLLDL1–5 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 2–2 · 0–2

VÍKINGUR II

WWLWWW2–0 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 4–3 · 8–3 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	B71	26	+57	63
2	Víkingur II	26	+29	60
3	Suduroy	26	+41	54
4	ÍF II	26	−2	37
5	TB	26	−2	35
6	B36 II	26	−12	32
7	NSÍ II	26	−23	26
8	Hoyvík	26	−34	26
9	HB II	26	−10	25
10	EB / Streymur II	26	−44	11