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ÍF II v TB

ÍF II

1–4Full time

1. Deild · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

ÍF II 1–4 TB ÍF II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ÍF II win~~52%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.805

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.742

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ÍF II win at 52%.
3′KICK-OFF ÍF II v TB
4′Much as we predicted: ÍF II was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–20–29
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' ÍF II 0–1 TB
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' ÍF II 0–2 TB
24′11′ and it is 0–2: Holm Torkil on the scoresheet for TB. 0–2 · 11–15–74
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' ÍF II win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' TB win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was ÍF II win 11%)
44′We said ÍF II at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–13–81
45′HALF-TIME ÍF II 0–2 TB
48′Goals are coming at about the 4.1 we expected. 0–2 · 5–12–83
48′SECOND HALF ÍF II 0–2 TB
64′PENALTY MISSED · 63' TB
69′TB ahead on 64′ through S. Musah. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' ÍF II win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
77′⚽ GOAL · 74' ÍF II 0–3 TB · A. Arnholdsson (assist J. Thomsen)
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' ÍF II 0–4 TB
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' ÍF II 1–4 TB
87′⚽ GOAL · 7' ÍF II 1–4 TB · S. Musah
87′⚽ GOAL · 11' ÍF II 1–4 TB · Holm Torkil (assist S. Musah)
87′PENALTY MISSED · 64' S. Musah · TB
87′⚽ GOAL · 74' ÍF II 1–4 TB · A. Arnholdsson (assist J. Thomsen)
87′⚽ GOAL · 79' ÍF II 1–4 TB · S. Musah (assist M. Hansen)
87′⚽ GOAL · 85' ÍF II 1–4 TB
90′ÍF II ahead on 86′ through A. D. Petersen. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME ÍF II 1–4 TB
FTÍF II 1–4 TB · ÍF II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

ÍF II win52%

Draw19%

TB win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · íf ii winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

52% The market46%

Us52%

~~Market~~46%

We make ÍF II a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · íf ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ÍF II win	52%	46%	+6
Draw	19%	24%	−5
TB win	29%	31%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	77%	70%	+7
Both teams to score	73%	71%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	91%	86%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	58%	51%	+7
ÍF II or draw	71%	69%	+2
ÍF II clean sheet	18%	–	–
TB clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 3.2 2.6 1 4.2 6.7 5.9 3.4 2 4.6 7.8 6.7 3.9 3 3.6 6.0 5.2 3.0 4 2.2 3.6 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ÍF II down, TB across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 795 1. Deild matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Deild matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ÍF II at home: 3.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). TB away: 2.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for ÍF II, 1.75 for TB. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~TB 0–3 IFI · IFI 1–1 TB · TB 0–0 IFI · IFI 2–5 TB

Form · last six in 1. Deild

ÍF II

LWWLWD1–4 · 9–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

WDWLDD4–3 · 2–2 · 5–1 · 2–3 · 4–4 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	B71	24	+51	59
2	Víkingur II	24	+22	54
3	Suduroy	24	+40	50
4	ÍF II	24	+7	37
5	TB	24	−5	31
6	B36 II	24	−11	29
7	NSÍ II	24	−21	25
8	Hoyvík	24	−31	23
9	HB II	24	−11	22
10	EB / Streymur II	24	−41	11