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Model 1.2

Home › Football › 1. Deild › Hoyvík v NSÍ II

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Hoyvík v NSÍ II

Hoyvík
2–0Full time
NSÍ II

1. Deild · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Hoyvík 2–0 NSÍ II NSÍ II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said NSÍ II win42%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.593
The market’s Brier score0.604

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said NSÍ II win at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: NSÍ II 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 38–20–42
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hoyvík v NSÍ II
  4. 8′Little has changed for our model: NSÍ II 42% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 38–21–41
  5. 10′Hoyvík find the net on 10′. 1–0. 1–0 · 59–19–22
  6. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Hoyvík 1–0 NSÍ II
  7. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' NSÍ II win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
  8. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Hoyvík win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was NSÍ II win 22%)
  9. 11′We said NSÍ II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 59–19–22
  10. 16′Hoyvík ahead on 11′ through V. Klein. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–19–21
  11. 23′A goal for Hoyvík on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 80–12–8
  12. 23′We said NSÍ II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–0 · 80–12–8
  13. 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Hoyvík 2–0 NSÍ II
  14. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' NSÍ II win: 42% at kick-off, 8% now
  15. 36′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 2–0 · 83–11–6
  16. 44′We said NSÍ II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Hoyvík 2–0 NSÍ II
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Hoyvík 2–0 NSÍ II
  19. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' NSÍ II win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  20. FTFULL TIME Hoyvík 2–0 NSÍ II
  21. FTHoyvík 2–0 NSÍ II · NSÍ II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with NSÍ II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Hoyvík 38%, draw 20%, NSÍ II 42%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Hoyvík v NSÍ IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hoyvík win38%
Draw20%
NSÍ II win42%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 26

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hoyvík

NSÍ II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Deild (Faroe Islands)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Deild (Faroe Islands)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7NSÍ II25−2126
8Hoyvík25−3623

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nsí ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
42% The market39%
Us42%
Market39%

We make NSÍ II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hoyvík v NSÍ II1.99 – 2.08
Form · last six in 1. Deild this season · since 22 AugW1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 23 v 268 v 7
The market · NSÍ II win39% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0217 OCT 14:07
Our probability · NSÍ II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hoyvík win38%37%+1
Draw20%24%−4
NSÍ II win42%39%+3
Over 2.5 goals76%70%+6
Both teams to score74%72%+2
Over 1.5 goals91%83%+8
Over 3.5 goals57%53%+4
Hoyvík or draw58%61%−3
Hoyvík clean sheet13%––
NSÍ II clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.2%
0123450 3.9 3.8 2.6 1 3.7 7.0 7.2 4.9 2.6 2 3.5 6.9 7.0 4.8 2.5 3 2.3 4.6 4.6 3.2 4 2.3 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hoyvík down, NSÍ II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting3.20
Over 2.53 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsHOY 0–3 NSI · NSI 3–4 HOY · HOY 0–1 NSI · HOY 1–2 NSI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Deild this season · since 22 Aug

HOYVÍK

LLWLDL0–5 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 3–8

NSÍ II

LLWLLD0–4 · 1–5 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 2–5 · 2–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1B7125+5160
2Víkingur II25+2757
3Suduroy25+4153
4ÍF II25+437
5TB25−234
6B36 II25−1032
7NSÍ II25−2126
8Hoyvík25−3623
9HB II25−1222
10EB / Streymur II25−4211

The competition's standings before kick-off.