EB / Streymur II v Hoyvík prediction · 1. Deild

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:31

EB / Streymur II 0–1 Hoyvík HOYVÍK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hoyvík win~~45%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.468

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.203

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hoyvík win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hoyvík 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 34–21–45
1′KICK-OFF EB / Streymur II v Hoyvík
24′Hoyvík find the net on 24′. 0–1. 0–1 · 15–18–67
24′We said Hoyvík at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 15–18–67
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' EB / Streymur II 0–1 Hoyvík
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Hoyvík win: 45% at kick-off, 67% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 0–1 · 14–19–67
45′HALF-TIME EB / Streymur II 0–1 Hoyvík
46′We said Hoyvík at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
46′SECOND HALF EB / Streymur II 0–1 Hoyvík
64′We said Hoyvík at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–20–75
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Hoyvík win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
74′We said Hoyvík at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
80′We said Hoyvík at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Hoyvík win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
84′We said Hoyvík at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
90′We said Hoyvík at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Hoyvík win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME EB / Streymur II 0–1 Hoyvík
FTEB / Streymur II 0–1 Hoyvík · Hoyvík win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hoyvík are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: EB / Streymur II 34%, draw 21%, Hoyvík 45%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on EB / Streymur II v HoyvíkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

EB / Streymur II win34%

Draw21%

Hoyvík win45%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 27

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

EB / Streymur II

Hoyvík

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Deild (Faroe Islands)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Hoyvík	26	−34	26
10	EB / Streymur II	26	−44	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hoyvík winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market63%

Us45%

~~Market~~63%

We make Hoyvík a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · EB / Streymur II v Hoyvík~~1.77 – 2.04

~~Form · last six in 1. Deild this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 26~~10 v 8

~~The market · Hoyvík win~~63% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hoyvík win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
EB / Streymur II win	34%	18%	+16
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Hoyvík win	45%	63%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	73%	73%	0
Both teams to score	71%	68%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
EB / Streymur II or draw	55%	37%	+18
EB / Streymur II clean sheet	14%	–	–
Hoyvík clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.0%

0123450 2.4 4.6 4.7 3.2 1 4.0 8.0 7.9 5.4 2.8 2 3.5 6.9 6.9 4.7 2.4 3 2.1 4.1 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+EB / Streymur II down, Hoyvík across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 805 1. Deild matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Deild matches have gone over 2.5 in 78.5% of games this season, across 130 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

EB / Streymur II at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Hoyvík away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for EB / Streymur II, 2.04 for Hoyvík. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~HOY 4–0 EBS · HOY 4–1 EBS · EBS 1–6 HOY · HOY 2–1 EBS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Deild this season · since 29 Aug

EB / STREYMUR II

LLWLLL1–3 · 1–4 · 4–0 · 0–5 · 1–2 · 0–2

HOYVÍK

LWLDLW0–3 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 3–8 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	B71	26	+57	63
2	Víkingur II	26	+29	60
3	Suduroy	26	+41	54
4	ÍF II	26	−2	37
5	TB	26	−2	35
6	B36 II	26	−12	32
7	NSÍ II	26	−23	26
8	Hoyvík	26	−34	26
9	HB II	26	−10	25
10	EB / Streymur II	26	−44	11