Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Fasil Ketema prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Fasil Ketema just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Welwalo Adigrat Uni 24%, draw 36%, Fasil Ketema 39%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Fasil KetemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Welwalo Adigrat Uni win24%

Draw36%

Fasil Ketema win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Welwalo Adigrat Uni

Fasil Ketema

1Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
12	Fasil Ketema	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fasil ketema winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Fasil Ketema a 39% chance to win. The model expects 0.7–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Welwalo Adigrat Uni v Fasil Ketema~~0.74 – 1.00

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~10 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Welwalo Adigrat Uni win	24%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Fasil Ketema win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Welwalo Adigrat Uni or draw	61%	–	–
Welwalo Adigrat Uni clean sheet	37%	–	–
Fasil Ketema clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.5%

0123450 19.5 15.9 8.8 3.0 1 11.3 14.4 6.4 2.2 2 4.8 4.7 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Welwalo Adigrat Uni down, Fasil Ketema across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,573 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Welwalo Adigrat Uni at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fasil Ketema away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Welwalo Adigrat Uni, 1.00 for Fasil Ketema. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAS 1–2 WEL · WEL 0–2 FAS · WEL 1–2 FAS · FAS 1–0 WEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

WELWALO ADIGRAT UNI

D1–1

FASIL KETEMA

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Halaba Ketema	2	+1	4
2	Adama Kenema	2	+1	4
3	Sheger Ketema	2	+1	4
4	Ethiopian Medhin	1	+2	3
5	Mekelakeya	1	+1	3
6	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	1	+1	3
7	Bahardar	2	0	3
8	Negelle Arsi	2	0	2
9	Kedus Giorgis	1	0	1
10	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
11	Welayta Dicha	1	0	1
12	Fasil Ketema	1	0	1
13	Mebrat Hayl	2	−1	1
14	Awassa Kenema	1	−1	0
15	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
16	Ethiopia Bunna	1	−1	0
17	Hadiya Hosaena	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	−2	0