Welayta Dicha v Halaba Ketema prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Welayta DichaDrawHalaba Ketema

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Welayta Dicha 32%, draw 35%, Halaba Ketema 33%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Welayta Dicha v Halaba KetemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Welayta Dicha win32%

Draw35%

Halaba Ketema win33%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Welayta Dicha

Halaba Ketema

4Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Welayta Dicha v Halaba Ketema~~0.95 – 0.95

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 2 v 5~~15 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw

Published at 36%, 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Welayta Dicha win	32%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Halaba Ketema win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Welayta Dicha or draw	67%	–	–
Welayta Dicha clean sheet	39%	–	–
Halaba Ketema clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%

0123450 17.1 12.6 6.8 2.2 1 12.4 14.9 6.3 2.0 2 6.7 6.2 3.0 3 2.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Welayta Dicha down, Halaba Ketema across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number5 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Welayta Dicha, 0.95 for Halaba Ketema. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

WELAYTA DICHA

DDL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–3

HALABA KETEMA

DWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0