Welayta Dicha v Bahardar prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:01

Welayta Dicha 1–3 Bahardar DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~37%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.620

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 27–37–36
1′KICK-OFF Welayta Dicha v Bahardar
15′A goal for Bahardar on 15′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–18–74
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Welayta Dicha 0–1 Bahardar
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 18% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Bahardar win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 40%)
16′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 7–18–74
32′The goal count is tracking the 1.7 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–76
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
45′HALF-TIME Welayta Dicha 0–1 Bahardar
46′SECOND HALF Welayta Dicha 0–1 Bahardar
55′Bahardar score on 55′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Welayta Dicha 0–2 Bahardar
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 2% now
56′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
65′Welayta Dicha find the net on 64′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–85
65′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Welayta Dicha 1–2 Bahardar
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
66′3 goals already, more than the 1.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–13–85
76′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
95′A goal for Bahardar on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Welayta Dicha 1–3 Bahardar
96′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Welayta Dicha 1–3 Bahardar
FTWelayta Dicha 1–3 Bahardar · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Welayta Dicha 27%, draw 37%, Bahardar 36%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Welayta Dicha v BahardarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Welayta Dicha win27%

Draw37%

Bahardar win36%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Welayta Dicha

Bahardar

4Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Bahardar	2	0	3
11	Welayta Dicha	2	0	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

37% The market35%

Us37%

~~Market~~35%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Welayta Dicha v Bahardar~~0.76 – 0.93

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 3~~11 v 9

~~The market · Draw~~35% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Welayta Dicha win	27%	34%	−7
Draw	37%	35%	+2
Bahardar win	36%	32%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Both teams to score	34%	38%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	52%	54%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	9%	13%	−4
Welayta Dicha or draw	64%	68%	−4
Welayta Dicha clean sheet	40%	–	–
Bahardar clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.3%

0123450 20.3 15.4 7.9 2.5 1 12.3 14.5 6.0 2 5.4 4.9 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Welayta Dicha down, Bahardar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Welayta Dicha at home: 0.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bahardar away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.76 goals for Welayta Dicha, 0.93 for Bahardar. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAH 0–2 WEL · WEL 0–0 BAH · WEL 0–4 BAH · BAH 0–0 WEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

WELAYTA DICHA

DD0–0 · 1–1

BAHARDAR

WL1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2	+2	6
2	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
3	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
4	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
5	Adama Kenema	2	+1	4
6	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
7	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
8	Mekelakeya	2	0	3
9	Bahardar	2	0	3
10	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
11	Welayta Dicha	2	0	2
12	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
13	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
14	Kedus Giorgis	2	−1	1
15	Awassa Kenema	2	−1	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	−2	0