Sidama Bunna v Ethiopian Medhin prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Sidama Bunna 29%, draw 36%, Ethiopian Medhin 35%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Sidama Bunna v Ethiopian MedhinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

Sidama Bunna win29%

Draw36%

Ethiopian Medhin win35%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sidama Bunna

Ethiopian Medhin

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · CAF Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

36% The market–

Us36%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The model expects 0.8–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sidama Bunna v Ethiopian Medhin~~0.84 – 0.94

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 4~~17 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sidama Bunna win	29%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Ethiopian Medhin win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Sidama Bunna or draw	65%	–	–
Sidama Bunna clean sheet	39%	–	–
Ethiopian Medhin clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.8%

0123450 18.8 14.2 7.5 2.4 1 12.4 14.8 6.2 2 5.9 5.5 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sidama Bunna down, Ethiopian Medhin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,579 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sidama Bunna at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ethiopian Medhin away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Sidama Bunna, 0.94 for Ethiopian Medhin. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SID 2–2 ETH · SID 0–1 ETH · ETH 1–1 SID · ETH 3–0 SID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

SIDAMA BUNNA

L0–1

ETHIOPIAN MEDHIN

WD2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2	+2	6
2	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
3	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
4	Adama Kenema	2	+1	4
5	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
6	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
7	Ethiopia Bunna	2	0	3
8	Mekelakeya	2	0	3
9	Bahardar	2	0	3
10	Welayta Dicha	2	0	2
11	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
12	Negelle Arsi	2	0	2
13	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
14	Kedus Giorgis	2	−1	1
15	Awassa Kenema	2	−1	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	−2	0