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Model 1.1

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Sidama Bunna v Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Sidama Bunna
0–1Full time
Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Premier League · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47
Sidama Bunna 0–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank SIDAMA BUNNA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sidama Bunna win35%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.696
The market’s Brier score0.820

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sidama Bunna win at 35%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Sidama Bunna v Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Sidama Bunna 35% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–34
  4. 3′Little has changed for our model: Sidama Bunna 35% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–30–33
  5. 44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Sidama Bunna 0–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Sidama Bunna 0–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  7. 46′SECOND HALF Sidama Bunna 0–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  8. FTFULL TIME Sidama Bunna 0–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  9. FTSidama Bunna 0–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank · Sidama Bunna win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sidama Bunna win35%
Draw33%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sidama Bunna

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

98Days since last match100
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sidama bunna winPublished 11 Oct 15:49
35% The market39%
Us35%
Market39%

We make Sidama Bunna a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:1811 OCT 15:34
Our probability · sidama bunna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sidama Bunna win35%39%−5
Draw33%35%−1
Ethiopia Nigd Bank win32%26%+6
Over 2.5 goals36%29%+7
Both teams to score44%37%+8
Over 1.5 goals64%53%+11
Over 3.5 goals17%14%+3
Sidama Bunna or draw68%74%−6
Sidama Bunna clean sheet36%––
Ethiopia Nigd Bank clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.1%
0123450 14.0 10.5 6.4 2.2 1 11.1 15.1 6.9 2.4 2 7.1 7.2 3.7 3 2.6 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sidama Bunna down, Ethiopia Nigd Bank across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.83
Over 2.52 of 6
Both scored3 of 6
Last meetingsETH 0–1 SID · SID 1–0 ETH · ETH 2–1 SID · SID 1–1 ETH

Form · last six in Premier League

SIDAMA BUNNA

WWWDWL3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

ETHIOPIA NIGD BANK

DWLDLD0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Adama Kenema1+13
2Halaba Ketema101
3Kedus Giorgis101
4Negelle Arsi101
5Welwalo Adigrat Uni101
6Fasil Ketema101
7Welayta Dicha101
8Mebrat Hayl1−10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.