Sheger Ketema v Negelle Arsi prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sheger KetemaDrawNegelle Arsi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Sheger Ketema 28%, draw 37%, Negelle Arsi 35%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Sheger Ketema v Negelle ArsiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sheger Ketema win28%

Draw37%

Negelle Arsi win35%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sheger Ketema

Negelle Arsi

10Days since last match9

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The model expects 0.8–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sheger Ketema v Negelle Arsi~~0.79 – 0.93

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 5~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sheger Ketema win	28%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Negelle Arsi win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Sheger Ketema or draw	65%	–	–
Sheger Ketema clean sheet	40%	–	–
Negelle Arsi clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.8%

0123450 19.8 14.9 7.7 2.5 1 12.4 14.6 6.0 2 5.6 5.1 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sheger Ketema down, Negelle Arsi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sheger Ketema at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Negelle Arsi away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Sheger Ketema, 0.93 for Negelle Arsi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHE 1–1 NEG · NEG 2–2 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

SHEGER KETEMA

WDL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

NEGELLE ARSI

DDW1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0