Negelle Arsi v Adama Kenema prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Negelle ArsiDrawAdama Kenema

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Negelle Arsi 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Negelle Arsi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Negelle Arsi 36%, draw 34%, Adama Kenema 30%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Negelle Arsi v Adama KenemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Negelle Arsi win36%

Draw34%

Adama Kenema win30%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Negelle Arsi

Adama Kenema

5Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · negelle arsi winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 22 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Negelle Arsi a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Negelle Arsi v Adama Kenema~~1.08 – 0.95

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W1 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~4 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Negelle Arsi win

Published at 35%, 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Negelle Arsi win	36%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Adama Kenema win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Negelle Arsi or draw	70%	–	–
Negelle Arsi clean sheet	39%	–	–
Adama Kenema clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.1%

0123450 15.1 10.7 5.9 1 12.4 14.9 6.3 2.0 2 7.7 7.2 3.4 3 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Negelle Arsi down, Adama Kenema across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Negelle Arsi at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Adama Kenema away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Negelle Arsi, 0.95 for Adama Kenema. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ADA 1–2 NEG · NEG 2–1 ADA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

NEGELLE ARSI

DDW1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

ADAMA KENEMA

WDD1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0