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Model 1.2

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Mebrat Hayl v Sheger Ketema

Mebrat Hayl
1–0Full time
Sheger Ketema

Premier League · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:30
Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw39%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.794
The market’s Brier score0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 39%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 27–39–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Mebrat Hayl v Sheger Ketema
  4. 3′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
  5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
  6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 22% now
  7. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Mebrat Hayl win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 40%)
  8. 4′Mebrat Hayl score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
  9. 35′The goal count is tracking the 1.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–21–6
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
  11. 45′SECOND HALF Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
  12. 49′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
  13. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  14. 68′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  15. 78′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  16. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
  17. 86′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
  18. FTFULL TIME Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
  19. FTMebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Mebrat Hayl 27%, draw 39%, Sheger Ketema 34%. Over 2.5 goals 21%, both teams to score 30%.

The AI’s read on Mebrat Hayl v Sheger KetemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Mebrat Hayl win27%
Draw39%
Sheger Ketema win34%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mebrat Hayl

Sheger Ketema

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Sheger Ketema2+14
16Mebrat Hayl2−11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off
39% The market36%
Us39%
Market36%

We make the draw a 39% chance. The market has it at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Mebrat Hayl v Sheger Ketema0.72 – 0.83
Form · Premier League this season · since 9 OctW0 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L0
Table places · points 1 v 416 v 5
The market · Draw36% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 12:36
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mebrat Hayl win27%27%0
Draw39%36%+3
Sheger Ketema win34%36%−2
Over 2.5 goals21%26%−5
Both teams to score30%35%−5
Over 1.5 goals47%51%−4
Over 3.5 goals7%12%−5
Mebrat Hayl or draw66%64%+2
Mebrat Hayl clean sheet44%––
Sheger Ketema clean sheet49%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 23.1%
0123450 23.1 15.9 7.3 2.1 1 13.6 14.1 5.2 2 5.5 4.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mebrat Hayl down, Sheger Ketema across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting0.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsSHE 0–0 MEB · MEB 1–0 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

MEBRAT HAYL

LD0–1 · 0–0

SHEGER KETEMA

WD1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ethiopia Nigd Bank2+26
2Ethiopian Medhin2+24
3Halaba Ketema2+14
4Adama Kenema2+14
5Sheger Ketema2+14
6Ethiopia Bunna203
7Mekelakeya203
8Bahardar203
9Welayta Dicha202
10Negelle Arsi202
11Welwalo Adigrat Uni101
12Fasil Ketema101
13Kedus Giorgis2−11
14Awassa Kenema2−11
15Hadiya Hosaena2−11
16Mebrat Hayl2−11
17Sidama Bunna1−10
18Gamo Chencha1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.