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Mebrat Hayl v Sheger Ketema
Mebrat Hayl
Sheger KetemaPremier League · TUE 20 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 39%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 27–39–33
- 1′KICK-OFF Mebrat Hayl v Sheger Ketema
- 3′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
- 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
- 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 22% now
- 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Mebrat Hayl win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 40%)
- 4′Mebrat Hayl score on 3′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
- 35′The goal count is tracking the 1.6 we expected. 1–0 · 72–21–6
- 45′HALF-TIME Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
- 45′SECOND HALF Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
- 49′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
- 68′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
- 78′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Draw: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
- 86′We said the draw at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
- FTFULL TIME Mebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema
- FTMebrat Hayl 1–0 Sheger Ketema · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
A draw is the likeliest result.
The Pitchside prediction: Mebrat Hayl 27%, draw 39%, Sheger Ketema 34%. Over 2.5 goals 21%, both teams to score 30%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Mebrat Hayl win27%
Sheger Ketema win34%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 3
Match timeline
All events
Mebrat HaylMIN
Sheger KetemaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Mebrat Hayl
Sheger Ketema
Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)
Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 39% chance. The market has it at 36%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mebrat Hayl win | 27% | 27% | 0 |
| Draw | 39% | 36% | +3 |
| Sheger Ketema win | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 21% | 26% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7% | 12% | −5 |
| Mebrat Hayl or draw | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Mebrat Hayl clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
| Sheger Ketema clean sheet | 49% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025/26Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct
MEBRAT HAYL
SHEGER KETEMA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 3 | Halaba Ketema | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Adama Kenema | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Sheger Ketema | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Ethiopia Bunna | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Mekelakeya | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Bahardar | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Welayta Dicha | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Negelle Arsi | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Fasil Ketema | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Kedus Giorgis | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 14 | Awassa Kenema | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 15 | Hadiya Hosaena | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 16 | Mebrat Hayl | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 1 | −2 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopian Medhin
Halaba Ketema
Adama Kenema
Ethiopia Bunna
Mekelakeya
Bahardar
Welayta Dicha
Negelle Arsi
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Fasil Ketema
Kedus Giorgis
Awassa Kenema
Hadiya Hosaena
Sidama Bunna
Gamo Chencha