Mebrat Hayl v Negelle Arsi prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:31

Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said a draw~~38%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.585

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.631

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 38% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 29–35–36
1′KICK-OFF Mebrat Hayl v Negelle Arsi
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Negelle Arsi win 34%)
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 48% now
42′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 23–50–28
45′HALF-TIME Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi
46′SECOND HALF Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi
51′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 20–55–25
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 58% now
59′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 61%. 0–0 · 18–61–21
64′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 16–65–19
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
69′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–0 · 14–70–16
73′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–0 · 12–75–14
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
77′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 9–80–11
81′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–0 · 7–85–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
84′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–6
90′We said the draw at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–0 · 2–95–3
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Draw: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi
FTMebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Mebrat Hayl 28%, draw 38%, Negelle Arsi 35%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Mebrat Hayl v Negelle ArsiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Mebrat Hayl win28%

Draw38%

Negelle Arsi win35%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mebrat Hayl

Negelle Arsi

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Negelle Arsi	1	0	1
14	Mebrat Hayl	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

38% The market35%

Us38%

~~Market~~35%

We make the draw a 38% chance. The market has it at 35%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mebrat Hayl v Negelle Arsi~~0.77 – 0.90

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~14 v 10

~~The market · Draw~~35% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mebrat Hayl win	28%	32%	−4
Draw	38%	35%	+3
Negelle Arsi win	35%	33%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
Both teams to score	33%	37%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	9%	12%	−3
Mebrat Hayl or draw	65%	67%	−2
Mebrat Hayl clean sheet	41%	–	–
Negelle Arsi clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.8%

0123450 20.8 15.3 7.6 2.3 1 12.8 14.4 5.8 2 5.6 4.9 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mebrat Hayl down, Negelle Arsi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,570 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mebrat Hayl at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Negelle Arsi away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for Mebrat Hayl, 0.90 for Negelle Arsi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NEG 0–2 MEB · MEB 0–0 NEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

MEBRAT HAYL

L0–1

NEGELLE ARSI

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopian Medhin	1	+2	3
2	Mekelakeya	1	+1	3
3	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	1	+1	3
4	Adama Kenema	1	+1	3
5	Bahardar	1	+1	3
6	Sheger Ketema	1	+1	3
7	Kedus Giorgis	1	0	1
8	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
9	Halaba Ketema	1	0	1
10	Negelle Arsi	1	0	1
11	Welayta Dicha	1	0	1
12	Fasil Ketema	1	0	1
13	Awassa Kenema	1	−1	0
14	Mebrat Hayl	1	−1	0
15	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
16	Ethiopia Bunna	1	−1	0
17	Hadiya Hosaena	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	−2	0