Kedus Giorgis v Sheger Ketema prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kedus GiorgisDrawSheger Ketema

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Kedus Giorgis 33%, draw 37%, Sheger Ketema 29%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Kedus Giorgis v Sheger KetemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Kedus Giorgis win33%

Draw37%

Sheger Ketema win29%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kedus Giorgis

Sheger Ketema

4Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kedus Giorgis v Sheger Ketema~~0.88 – 0.81

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D2 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 4~~12 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kedus Giorgis win	33%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Sheger Ketema win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	24%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Kedus Giorgis or draw	71%	–	–
Kedus Giorgis clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sheger Ketema clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.3%

0123450 20.3 13.2 6.1 1 14.5 14.6 5.3 2 7.2 5.7 2.3 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kedus Giorgis down, Sheger Ketema across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kedus Giorgis at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sheger Ketema away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Kedus Giorgis, 0.81 for Sheger Ketema. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHE 1–0 KED · KED 0–1 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

KEDUS GIORGIS

DLD1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

SHEGER KETEMA

WDL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0