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Kedus Giorgis v Negelle Arsi
Premier League · SAT 10 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Kedus Giorgis v Negelle Arsi
- 2′Much as we predicted: the draw was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 35–34–31
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Kedus Giorgis 0–1 Negelle Arsi
- 22′Negelle Arsi find the net on 15′. 0–0. 0–0 · 32–39–29
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 48% now
- 45′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 50%. 0–0 · 26–50–24
- 45′HALF-TIME Kedus Giorgis 0–0 Negelle Arsi
- 48′SECOND HALF Kedus Giorgis 0–0 Negelle Arsi
- 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kedus Giorgis 1–0 Negelle Arsi
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Negelle Arsi
- 65′A goal for Negelle Arsi on 63′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 18–65–17
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 65% now
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 52' Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Negelle Arsi · D. Natnael
- 83′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Negelle Arsi
- 86′We published the draw at 37%. Our model now makes it 93%. 1–1 · 4–93–4
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 93% now
- FTFULL TIME Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Negelle Arsi
- FTKedus Giorgis 1–1 Negelle Arsi · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 13:00
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 34%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kedus Giorgis win | 34% | 34% | 0 |
| Draw | 37% | 34% | +3 |
| Negelle Arsi win | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 31% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 36% | 40% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 15% | −4 |
| Kedus Giorgis or draw | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Kedus Giorgis clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| Negelle Arsi clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025Form · last six in Premier League
KEDUS GIORGIS
NEGELLE ARSI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Adama Kenema | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 2 |  Halaba Ketema | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 |  Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 |  Mebrat Hayl | 1 | −1 | 0 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.