Kedus Giorgis v Ethiopia Bunna

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 35%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 31–35–33
3. 2′KICK-OFF Kedus Giorgis v Ethiopia Bunna
4. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 45% now
5. 41′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 47%. 0–0 · 26–47–27
6. 45′HALF-TIME Kedus Giorgis 0–0 Ethiopia Bunna
7. 46′SECOND HALF Kedus Giorgis 0–0 Ethiopia Bunna
8. 47′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 24–50–26
9. 55′We said the draw at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 22–55–23
10. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 55% now
11. 58′Ethiopia Bunna find the net on 57′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–79
12. 58′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 3–18–79
13. 58′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 3–18–79
14. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Kedus Giorgis 0–1 Ethiopia Bunna
15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 18% now
16. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Ethiopia Bunna win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
17. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
18. 69′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
19. 75′A goal for Ethiopia Bunna on 75′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
20. 75′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
21. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Kedus Giorgis 0–2 Ethiopia Bunna
22. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Draw: 35% at kick-off, 1% now
23. 83′Kedus Giorgis score on 83′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
24. 83′We said the draw at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
25. 83′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
26. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Kedus Giorgis 1–2 Ethiopia Bunna
27. 96′Kedus Giorgis have ten men and Ethiopia Bunna ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–2 · 0–1–99
28. 96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Kedus Giorgis
29. 96′🟥 RED CARD · 90+5' Ethiopia Bunna
30. FTFULL TIME Kedus Giorgis 1–2 Ethiopia Bunna
31. FTKedus Giorgis 1–2 Ethiopia Bunna · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.