Kedus Giorgis v Adama Kenema prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 15:30

Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Adama Kenema KEDUS GIORGIS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kedus Giorgis win~~38%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.658

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.681

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kedus Giorgis win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kedus Giorgis was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–34–28
1′KICK-OFF Kedus Giorgis v Adama Kenema
10′Adama Kenema find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–63
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Kedus Giorgis 0–1 Adama Kenema
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Kedus Giorgis win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Adama Kenema win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Kedus Giorgis win 37%)
11′We said Kedus Giorgis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
35′We said Kedus Giorgis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–68
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Kedus Giorgis win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′HALF-TIME Kedus Giorgis 0–1 Adama Kenema
46′SECOND HALF Kedus Giorgis 0–1 Adama Kenema
58′We said Kedus Giorgis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
63′A goal for Kedus Giorgis on 63′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–60–18
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Adama Kenema
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Kedus Giorgis win: 38% at kick-off, 22% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Adama Kenema win 77%)
64′We said Kedus Giorgis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 1–1 · 21–61–17
68′We said Kedus Giorgis at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Kedus Giorgis win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Kedus Giorgis win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
FTFULL TIME Kedus Giorgis 1–1 Adama Kenema
FTKedus Giorgis 1–1 Adama Kenema · Kedus Giorgis win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kedus Giorgis just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kedus Giorgis 38%, draw 34%, Adama Kenema 28%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Kedus Giorgis v Adama KenemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Kedus Giorgis win38%

Draw34%

Adama Kenema win28%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kedus Giorgis

Adama Kenema

5Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Adama Kenema	2	+1	4
14	Kedus Giorgis	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kedus giorgis winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

38% The market39%

Us38%

~~Market~~39%

We make Kedus Giorgis a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kedus Giorgis v Adama Kenema~~1.09 – 0.92

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~14 v 5

~~The market · Kedus Giorgis win~~39% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kedus Giorgis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kedus Giorgis win	38%	39%	−1
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Adama Kenema win	28%	29%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Both teams to score	41%	40%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	61%	57%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	15%	15%	0
Kedus Giorgis or draw	72%	71%	+1
Kedus Giorgis clean sheet	40%	–	–
Adama Kenema clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.4%

0123450 15.4 10.6 5.6 1 12.9 14.9 6.1 2 8.0 7.2 3.3 3 3.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kedus Giorgis down, Adama Kenema across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,580 Premier League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kedus Giorgis at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Adama Kenema away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Kedus Giorgis, 0.92 for Adama Kenema. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KED 1–0 ADA · ADA 1–0 KED · KED 0–1 ADA · ADA 1–2 KED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

KEDUS GIORGIS

DL1–1 · 1–2

ADAMA KENEMA

WD1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2	+2	6
2	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
3	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
4	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
5	Adama Kenema	2	+1	4
6	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
7	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
8	Mekelakeya	2	0	3
9	Bahardar	2	0	3
10	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
11	Welayta Dicha	2	0	2
12	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
13	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
14	Kedus Giorgis	2	−1	1
15	Awassa Kenema	2	−1	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	−2	0