Halaba Ketema v Hadiya Hosaena prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Halaba KetemaDrawHadiya Hosaena

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Halaba Ketema 29%, draw 36%, Hadiya Hosaena 35%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Halaba Ketema v Hadiya HosaenaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Halaba Ketema win29%

Draw36%

Hadiya Hosaena win35%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Halaba Ketema

Hadiya Hosaena

10Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Halaba Ketema v Hadiya Hosaena~~0.86 – 0.96

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W1 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 4~~5 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Halaba Ketema win	29%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Halaba Ketema or draw	65%	–	–
Halaba Ketema clean sheet	39%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.3%

0123450 18.3 13.8 7.5 2.5 1 12.2 14.7 6.3 2.1 2 6.0 5.6 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Halaba Ketema down, Hadiya Hosaena across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Halaba Ketema at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Hadiya Hosaena away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Halaba Ketema, 0.96 for Hadiya Hosaena. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

HALABA KETEMA

DWD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

HADIYA HOSAENA

LDW0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0