Hadiya Hosaena v Welwalo Adigrat Uni prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Hadiya Hosaena 35%, draw 37%, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 29%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Hadiya Hosaena v Welwalo Adigrat UniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

Hadiya Hosaena win35%

Draw37%

Welwalo Adigrat Uni win29%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hadiya Hosaena

Welwalo Adigrat Uni

3Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

37% The market–

Us37%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hadiya Hosaena v Welwalo Adigrat Uni~~0.94 – 0.83

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 1~~16 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hadiya Hosaena win	35%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Welwalo Adigrat Uni win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena or draw	71%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena clean sheet	44%	–	–
Welwalo Adigrat Uni clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.0%

0123450 19.0 12.4 5.8 1 14.4 14.7 5.4 2 7.6 6.2 2.5 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hadiya Hosaena down, Welwalo Adigrat Uni across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,579 Premier League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hadiya Hosaena at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Welwalo Adigrat Uni away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Hadiya Hosaena, 0.83 for Welwalo Adigrat Uni. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WEL 0–1 HAD · HAD 1–2 WEL · HAD 3–2 WEL · WEL 1–0 HAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

HADIYA HOSAENA

LD0–1 · 1–1

WELWALO ADIGRAT UNI

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	2	+2	6
2	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
3	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
4	Adama Kenema	2	+1	4
5	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
6	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
7	Ethiopia Bunna	2	0	3
8	Mekelakeya	2	0	3
9	Bahardar	2	0	3
10	Welayta Dicha	2	0	2
11	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
12	Negelle Arsi	2	0	2
13	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
14	Kedus Giorgis	2	−1	1
15	Awassa Kenema	2	−1	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	−2	0