Hadiya Hosaena v Welayta Dicha prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Hadiya Hosaena 1–1 Welayta Dicha DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Hadiya Hosaena 29%, draw 37%, Welayta Dicha 34%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Hadiya Hosaena v Welayta DichaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hadiya Hosaena win29%

Draw37%

Welayta Dicha win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hadiya Hosaena

Welayta Dicha

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Welayta Dicha	1	0	1
17	Hadiya Hosaena	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The model expects 0.8–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hadiya Hosaena v Welayta Dicha~~0.82 – 0.91

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 0 v 1~~17 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hadiya Hosaena win	29%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Welayta Dicha win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena or draw	66%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena clean sheet	41%	–	–
Welayta Dicha clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.9%

0123450 19.9 14.4 7.3 2.3 1 12.8 14.7 5.9 2 5.9 5.3 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hadiya Hosaena down, Welayta Dicha across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,575 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hadiya Hosaena at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Welayta Dicha away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Hadiya Hosaena, 0.91 for Welayta Dicha. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WEL 1–0 HAD · HAD 2–1 WEL · WEL 1–3 HAD · HAD 0–1 WEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

HADIYA HOSAENA

L0–1

WELAYTA DICHA

D0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
2	Halaba Ketema	2	+1	4
3	Adama Kenema	2	+1	4
4	Sheger Ketema	2	+1	4
5	Mekelakeya	1	+1	3
6	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	1	+1	3
7	Ethiopia Bunna	2	0	3
8	Bahardar	2	0	3
9	Negelle Arsi	2	0	2
10	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
11	Welayta Dicha	1	0	1
12	Fasil Ketema	1	0	1
13	Kedus Giorgis	2	−1	1
14	Awassa Kenema	2	−1	1
15	Mebrat Hayl	2	−1	1
16	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
17	Hadiya Hosaena	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	1	−2	0