Hadiya Hosaena v Fasil Ketema prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Hadiya Hosaena 1–0 Fasil Ketema DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Hadiya Hosaena 28%, draw 38%, Fasil Ketema 34%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Hadiya Hosaena v Fasil KetemaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hadiya Hosaena win28%

Draw38%

Fasil Ketema win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hadiya Hosaena

Fasil Ketema

6Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make the draw a 38% chance. The model expects 0.8–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hadiya Hosaena v Fasil Ketema~~0.77 – 0.88

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 2~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hadiya Hosaena win	28%	–	–
Draw	38%	–	–
Fasil Ketema win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	23%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena or draw	66%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena clean sheet	42%	–	–
Fasil Ketema clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.1%

0123450 21.1 15.1 7.4 2.2 1 13.1 14.5 5.7 2 5.7 5.0 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hadiya Hosaena down, Fasil Ketema across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hadiya Hosaena at home: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fasil Ketema away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for Hadiya Hosaena, 0.88 for Fasil Ketema. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HAD 0–1 FAS · FAS 0–1 HAD · FAS 1–1 HAD · HAD 1–1 FAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

HADIYA HOSAENA

LD0–1 · 1–1

FASIL KETEMA

DD0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
9	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
10	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
11	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
15	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0