Hadiya Hosaena v Bahardar prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Hadiya Hosaena 0–1 Bahardar DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.612

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Hadiya Hosaena win26%

Draw38%

Bahardar win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Hadiya Hosaena

Bahardar

100Days since last match100

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawPublished 11 Oct 17:22

38% The market–

Us38%

We make the draw a 38% chance. The model expects 0.7–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hadiya Hosaena win	26%	–	–
Draw	38%	–	–
Bahardar win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	24%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena or draw	64%	–	–
Hadiya Hosaena clean sheet	39%	–	–
Bahardar clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.6%

0123450 20.6 15.5 8.1 2.6 1 12.0 14.6 6.0 2 5.2 4.8 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hadiya Hosaena down, Bahardar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,565 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hadiya Hosaena at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bahardar away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.75 goals for Hadiya Hosaena, 0.94 for Bahardar. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2020

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 12

~~Both scored~~2 of 12

~~Last meetings~~HAD 0–1 BAH · BAH 3–1 HAD · HAD 0–1 BAH · BAH 2–0 HAD

Form · last six in Premier League

HADIYA HOSAENA

DDLWDD0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

BAHARDAR

DDLDLD1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Adama Kenema	1	+1	3
2	Halaba Ketema	1	0	1
3	Kedus Giorgis	1	0	1
4	Negelle Arsi	1	0	1
5	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
6	Fasil Ketema	1	0	1
7	Welayta Dicha	1	0	1
8	Mebrat Hayl	1	−1	0