Fasil Ketema v Bahardar prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fasil KetemaDrawBahardar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Fasil Ketema 26%, draw 38%, Bahardar 36%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Fasil Ketema v BahardarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Fasil Ketema win26%

Draw38%

Bahardar win36%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fasil Ketema

Bahardar

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make the draw a 38% chance. The model expects 0.7–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fasil Ketema v Bahardar~~0.73 – 0.92

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct~~W0 D2 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 6~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fasil Ketema win	26%	–	–
Draw	38%	–	–
Bahardar win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	23%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	50%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Fasil Ketema or draw	64%	–	–
Fasil Ketema clean sheet	40%	–	–
Bahardar clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.2%

0123450 21.2 16.0 8.1 2.5 1 12.4 14.3 5.8 2 5.1 4.6 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fasil Ketema down, Bahardar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 0.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fasil Ketema at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bahardar away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.73 goals for Fasil Ketema, 0.92 for Bahardar. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~0.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FAS 0–2 BAH · BAH 0–0 FAS · FAS 0–0 BAH · BAH 2–1 FAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 10 Oct

FASIL KETEMA

DDL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

BAHARDAR

WLW1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0