Ethiopian Medhin v Mekelakeya prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ethiopian MedhinDrawMekelakeya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Ethiopian Medhin 32%, draw 35%, Mekelakeya 33%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Ethiopian Medhin v MekelakeyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ethiopian Medhin win32%

Draw35%

Mekelakeya win33%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ethiopian Medhin

Mekelakeya

10Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ethiopian Medhin v Mekelakeya~~0.95 – 0.97

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ethiopian Medhin win	32%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Mekelakeya win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Ethiopian Medhin or draw	67%	–	–
Ethiopian Medhin clean sheet	38%	–	–
Mekelakeya clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.6%

0123450 16.6 12.5 6.9 2.3 1 12.2 15.0 6.5 2.1 2 6.6 6.3 3.1 3 2.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ethiopian Medhin down, Mekelakeya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.38 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ethiopian Medhin at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Mekelakeya away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Ethiopian Medhin, 0.97 for Mekelakeya. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.38

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~MEK 1–0 ETH · ETH 0–1 MEK · ETH 2–0 MEK · MEK 0–0 ETH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

ETHIOPIAN MEDHIN

WD2–0 · 1–1

MEKELAKEYA

WLW1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
9	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
10	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
11	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
15	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0