Ethiopia Bunna v Mebrat Hayl prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ethiopia BunnaDrawMebrat Hayl

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Ethiopia Bunna 34%, draw 37%, Mebrat Hayl 30%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Ethiopia Bunna v Mebrat HaylBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ethiopia Bunna win34%

Draw37%

Mebrat Hayl win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ethiopia Bunna

Mebrat Hayl

4Days since last match5

Last match: 21 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 20 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ethiopia Bunna v Mebrat Hayl~~0.92 – 0.84

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W1 D0 L2 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~11 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ethiopia Bunna win	34%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Mebrat Hayl win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	54%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Ethiopia Bunna or draw	70%	–	–
Ethiopia Bunna clean sheet	43%	–	–
Mebrat Hayl clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.1%

0123450 19.1 12.7 6.1 1 14.0 14.8 5.5 2 7.3 6.0 2.5 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ethiopia Bunna down, Mebrat Hayl across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ethiopia Bunna at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mebrat Hayl away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Ethiopia Bunna, 0.84 for Mebrat Hayl. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MEB 2–1 ETH · ETH 0–1 MEB · MEB 0–1 ETH · ETH 0–0 MEB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

ETHIOPIA BUNNA

LWL0–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

MEBRAT HAYL

LDW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Hadiya Hosaena	3	0	4
9	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
10	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
11	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Fasil Ketema	3	−1	2
15	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
16	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0