Bahardar v Welwalo Adigrat Uni prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Bahardar just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bahardar 40%, draw 36%, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 24%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Bahardar v Welwalo Adigrat UniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Bahardar win40%

Draw36%

Welwalo Adigrat Uni win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bahardar

Welwalo Adigrat Uni

2Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 16 Oct · CAF Confederation Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
15	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bahardar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 23 Oct 00:09 · postponed, not graded

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Bahardar a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bahardar v Welwalo Adigrat Uni~~1.04 – 0.74

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct~~W2 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~2 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bahardar win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bahardar win	40%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Welwalo Adigrat Uni win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Bahardar or draw	76%	–	–
Bahardar clean sheet	48%	–	–
Welwalo Adigrat Uni clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.9%

0123450 18.9 10.8 4.7 1 15.8 14.4 4.8 2 9.1 6.6 2.5 3 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bahardar down, Welwalo Adigrat Uni across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,584 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 26.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bahardar at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Welwalo Adigrat Uni away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Bahardar, 0.74 for Welwalo Adigrat Uni. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BAH 0–0 WEL · WEL 0–0 BAH · BAH 3–0 WEL · WEL 0–1 BAH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 9 Oct

BAHARDAR

WLW1–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

WELWALO ADIGRAT UNI

D1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ethiopia Nigd Bank	3	+2	7
2	Bahardar	3	+2	6
3	Mekelakeya	3	+1	6
4	Negelle Arsi	3	+3	5
5	Halaba Ketema	3	+1	5
6	Adama Kenema	3	+1	5
7	Ethiopian Medhin	2	+2	4
8	Mebrat Hayl	3	0	4
9	Sheger Ketema	3	0	4
10	Ethiopia Bunna	3	−3	3
11	Fasil Ketema	2	0	2
12	Kedus Giorgis	3	−1	2
13	Awassa Kenema	3	−1	2
14	Welayta Dicha	3	−2	2
15	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	1	0	1
16	Hadiya Hosaena	2	−1	1
17	Sidama Bunna	1	−1	0
18	Gamo Chencha	2	−3	0