Awassa Kenema v Ethiopian Medhin

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ethiopian Medhin win at 39%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ethiopian Medhin 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 27–34–39
3. 1′KICK-OFF Awassa Kenema v Ethiopian Medhin
4. 10′Awassa Kenema are down to ten from 10′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 26–35–38
5. 10′🟥 RED CARD · 10' Awassa Kenema
6. 21′A goal for Ethiopian Medhin on 21′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–18–74
7. 21′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 8–18–74
8. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Awassa Kenema 0–1 Ethiopian Medhin
9. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Ethiopian Medhin win: 39% at kick-off, 74% now
10. 24′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–18–75
11. 25′Ethiopian Medhin score on 24′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
12. 25′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
13. 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Awassa Kenema 0–2 Ethiopian Medhin
14. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Ethiopian Medhin win: 39% at kick-off, 93% now
15. 37′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 6–18–76
16. 37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' Ethiopian Medhin
17. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Ethiopian Medhin win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
18. 45′HALF-TIME Awassa Kenema 0–1 Ethiopian Medhin
19. 46′SECOND HALF Awassa Kenema 0–1 Ethiopian Medhin
20. 49′Awassa Kenema have ten men and Ethiopian Medhin ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–17–79
21. 49′🟥 RED CARD · 45+4' Ethiopian Medhin
22. 53′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
23. 63′Awassa Kenema score on 62′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–60–23
24. 63′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 17–60–23
25. 63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Awassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopian Medhin
26. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Ethiopian Medhin win: 39% at kick-off, 23% now
27. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Ethiopian Medhin win 23%)
28. 69′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
29. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Ethiopian Medhin win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
30. 76′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–75–14
31. 82′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Ethiopian Medhin win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
33. 86′Red cards for both sides: Awassa Kenema down to ten, Ethiopian Medhin to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 4–90–6
34. 86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Ethiopian Medhin
35. 89′We said Ethiopian Medhin at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
36. FTFULL TIME Awassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopian Medhin
37. FTAwassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopian Medhin · Ethiopian Medhin win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.