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Awassa Kenema v Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Awassa Kenema
Ethiopia Nigd BankPremier League · THU 22 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ethiopia Nigd Bank win at 38%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Ethiopia Nigd Bank was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 31–32–38
- 1′KICK-OFF Awassa Kenema v Ethiopia Nigd Bank
- 5′A goal for Awassa Kenema on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–21–17
- 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Awassa Kenema 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Ethiopia Nigd Bank win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
- 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Awassa Kenema win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Ethiopia Nigd Bank win 37%)
- 6′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 63–21–16
- 17′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
- 40′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
- 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ethiopia Nigd Bank win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Awassa Kenema 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
- 46′SECOND HALF Awassa Kenema 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
- 62′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
- 84′Ethiopia Nigd Bank score on 84′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 6–86–7
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Awassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
- 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Awassa Kenema win 93%)
- FTFULL TIME Awassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
- FTAwassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank · Ethiopia Nigd Bank win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Ethiopia Nigd Bank are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Awassa Kenema 31%, draw 31%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
Awassa Kenema win31%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank win38%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 3
Match timeline
All events
Awassa KenemaMIN
Ethiopia Nigd BankEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Awassa Kenema
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)
Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Ethiopia Nigd Bank a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awassa Kenema win | 31% | 31% | 0 |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | −5 |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank win | 38% | 34% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 31% | +10 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 39% | +9 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 55% | +14 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 16% | +5 |
| Awassa Kenema or draw | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Awassa Kenema clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2023/24Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct
AWASSA KENEMA
ETHIOPIA NIGD BANK
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 2 | Negelle Arsi | 3 | +3 | 5 |
| 3 | Halaba Ketema | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 4 | Ethiopian Medhin | 2 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Adama Kenema | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 6 | Mebrat Hayl | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Sheger Ketema | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Mekelakeya | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Bahardar | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Ethiopia Bunna | 3 | −3 | 3 |
| 11 | Welayta Dicha | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Fasil Ketema | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Kedus Giorgis | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 15 | Awassa Kenema | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 16 | Hadiya Hosaena | 2 | −1 | 1 |
| 17 | Sidama Bunna | 1 | −1 | 0 |
| 18 | Gamo Chencha | 1 | −2 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Negelle Arsi
Halaba Ketema
Ethiopian Medhin
Adama Kenema
Mebrat Hayl
Sheger Ketema
Mekelakeya
Bahardar
Ethiopia Bunna
Welayta Dicha
Fasil Ketema
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Kedus Giorgis
Hadiya Hosaena
Sidama Bunna
Gamo Chencha