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Awassa Kenema v Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Awassa Kenema
1–1Full time
Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Premier League · THU 22 OCT

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 15:30
Awassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank ETHIOPIA NIGD BANK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank win38%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.708
The market’s Brier score0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ethiopia Nigd Bank win at 38%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Ethiopia Nigd Bank was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 31–32–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Awassa Kenema v Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  4. 5′A goal for Awassa Kenema on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–21–17
  5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Awassa Kenema 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Ethiopia Nigd Bank win: 38% at kick-off, 17% now
  7. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Awassa Kenema win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Ethiopia Nigd Bank win 37%)
  8. 6′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 63–21–16
  9. 17′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–12
  11. 40′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
  12. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ethiopia Nigd Bank win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Awassa Kenema 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Awassa Kenema 1–0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  15. 62′We said Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
  16. 84′Ethiopia Nigd Bank score on 84′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 6–86–7
  17. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Awassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  18. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Awassa Kenema win 93%)
  19. FTFULL TIME Awassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank
  20. FTAwassa Kenema 1–1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank · Ethiopia Nigd Bank win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ethiopia Nigd Bank are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Awassa Kenema 31%, draw 31%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 38%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Awassa Kenema v Ethiopia Nigd BankBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Awassa Kenema win31%
Draw31%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank win38%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Awassa Kenema

Ethiopia Nigd Bank

5Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Ethiopia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ethiopia Nigd Bank2+26
15Awassa Kenema2−11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ethiopia nigd bank winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off
38% The market34%
Us38%
Market34%

We make Ethiopia Nigd Bank a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Awassa Kenema v Ethiopia Nigd Bank1.09 – 1.24
Form · Premier League this season · since 11 OctW0 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L0
Table places · points 1 v 615 v 1
The market · Ethiopia Nigd Bank win34% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 12:27
Our probability · Ethiopia Nigd Bank win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Awassa Kenema win31%31%0
Draw31%36%−5
Ethiopia Nigd Bank win38%34%+4
Over 2.5 goals41%31%+10
Both teams to score48%39%+9
Over 1.5 goals69%55%+14
Over 3.5 goals21%16%+5
Awassa Kenema or draw62%66%−4
Awassa Kenema clean sheet29%––
Ethiopia Nigd Bank clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%
0123450 11.7 10.4 7.5 3.1 1 9.0 14.6 8.0 3.3 2 5.8 7.0 4.3 3 2.1 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Awassa Kenema down, Ethiopia Nigd Bank across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24
Goals a meeting3.17
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsETH 4–2 AWA · AWA 1–1 ETH · AWA 2–1 ETH · ETH 2–0 AWA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 11 Oct

AWASSA KENEMA

LD0–1 · 1–1

ETHIOPIA NIGD BANK

WW1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ethiopia Nigd Bank2+26
2Negelle Arsi3+35
3Halaba Ketema3+15
4Ethiopian Medhin2+24
5Adama Kenema2+14
6Mebrat Hayl304
7Sheger Ketema304
8Mekelakeya203
9Bahardar203
10Ethiopia Bunna3−33
11Welayta Dicha202
12Fasil Ketema202
13Welwalo Adigrat Uni101
14Kedus Giorgis2−11
15Awassa Kenema2−11
16Hadiya Hosaena2−11
17Sidama Bunna1−10
18Gamo Chencha1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.