Red Rhinos v Moneni Pirates prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Red Rhinos 0–2 Moneni Pirates MONENI PIRATES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Moneni Pirates win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Moneni Pirates are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Red Rhinos 27%, draw 28%, Moneni Pirates 45%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Red Rhinos v Moneni PiratesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Red Rhinos win27%

Draw28%

Moneni Pirates win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Red Rhinos

Moneni Pirates

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Moneni Pirates	3	+1	6
10	Red Rhinos	3	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moneni pirates winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Moneni Pirates a 45% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Red Rhinos v Moneni Pirates~~0.94 – 1.32

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 6~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Red Rhinos win	27%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Moneni Pirates win	45%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Red Rhinos or draw	55%	–	–
Red Rhinos clean sheet	28%	–	–
Moneni Pirates clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.0 13.7 8.9 4.0 1 10.1 12.4 8.0 3.6 2 4.8 5.9 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Red Rhinos down, Moneni Pirates across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,292 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Red Rhinos at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Moneni Pirates away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Red Rhinos, 1.32 for Moneni Pirates. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept

RED RHINOS

LWD1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1

MONENI PIRATES

WLW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Leopards	3	+4	7
2	Green Mamba	3	+4	7
3	Young Buffaloes	3	+1	6
4	Moneni Pirates	3	+1	6
5	Ubombo Sugar	3	+1	6
6	Ezulwini United	3	+1	4
7	Highlanders	3	+1	4
8	PPK Professionals	3	0	4
9	Nsingizini Hotspurs	3	0	4
10	Red Rhinos	3	−1	4
11	Madlenya	3	0	3
12	Rangers FC	3	−1	3
13	Amawele	3	−5	3
14	Mbabane Swallows	3	−1	2
15	Manzini Sea Birds	3	−2	1
16	Tabankulu	3	−3	1