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Moneni Pirates v Ubombo Sugar

Moneni Pirates

1–0Full time

Ubombo Sugar

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Moneni Pirates 1–0 Ubombo Sugar MONENI PIRATES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Moneni Pirates win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Moneni Pirates win46%

Draw30%

Ubombo Sugar win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · moneni pirates winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Moneni Pirates a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moneni Pirates win	46%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Ubombo Sugar win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Moneni Pirates or draw	76%	–	–
Moneni Pirates clean sheet	47%	–	–
Ubombo Sugar clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.6%

0123450 13.9 10.7 4.2 1 16.6 12.3 4.9 2 10.0 7.5 2.9 3 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moneni Pirates down, Ubombo Sugar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,284 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moneni Pirates at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ubombo Sugar away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Moneni Pirates, 0.78 for Ubombo Sugar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MON 1–1 UBO · UBO 0–3 MON

Form · last six in Premier League

MONENI PIRATES

DWDWWL1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–2

UBOMBO SUGAR

DDLDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ubombo Sugar	2	+2	6
2	Highlanders	2	+3	4
3	Royal Leopards	2	+2	4
4	PPK Professionals	2	+2	4
5	Green Mamba	2	+2	4
6	Ezulwini United	2	+1	3
7	Moneni Pirates	2	0	3
8	Young Buffaloes	2	0	3
9	Nsingizini Hotspurs	2	0	3
10	Rangers FC	2	0	3
11	Amawele	3	−5	3
12	Madlenya	2	0	2
13	Manzini Sea Birds	2	−1	1
14	Tabankulu	3	−3	1
15	Mbabane Swallows	1	−1	0
16	Red Rhinos	1	−2	0