Mbabane Swallows v Moneni Pirates prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mbabane SwallowsDrawMoneni Pirates

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mbabane Swallows 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mbabane Swallows just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mbabane Swallows 36%, draw 33%, Moneni Pirates 31%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Mbabane Swallows v Moneni PiratesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Mbabane Swallows win36%

Draw33%

Moneni Pirates win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mbabane Swallows

Moneni Pirates

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Moneni Pirates	4	+3	9
9	Mbabane Swallows	4	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mbabane swallows winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Mbabane Swallows a 36% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mbabane Swallows v Moneni Pirates~~0.95 – 0.84

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L1 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 9~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mbabane Swallows win	36%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Moneni Pirates win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Mbabane Swallows or draw	69%	–	–
Mbabane Swallows clean sheet	44%	–	–
Moneni Pirates clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.3%

0123450 17.3 14.0 5.9 1 15.7 12.9 5.4 2 7.5 6.1 2.6 3 2.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mbabane Swallows down, Moneni Pirates across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,306 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.6% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mbabane Swallows at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Moneni Pirates away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Mbabane Swallows, 0.84 for Moneni Pirates. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MBA 1–1 MON · MON 1–0 MBA · MBA 1–3 MON · MON 1–0 MBA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept

MBABANE SWALLOWS

LDDW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

MONENI PIRATES

WLWW1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Leopards	4	+7	10
2	Green Mamba	5	+6	10
3	Moneni Pirates	4	+3	9
4	Ubombo Sugar	4	+2	9
5	Amawele	5	−3	9
6	Young Buffaloes	4	+1	7
7	Nsingizini Hotspurs	4	+1	7
8	Ezulwini United	4	+1	5
9	Mbabane Swallows	4	0	5
10	Rangers FC	5	−1	5
11	Highlanders	4	0	4
12	PPK Professionals	4	−1	4
13	Madlenya	5	−1	4
14	Red Rhinos	5	−6	4
15	Manzini Sea Birds	5	−3	2
16	Tabankulu	4	−6	1