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Mbabane Swallows v Madlenya

Mbabane Swallows

0–0Full time

Madlenya

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Mbabane Swallows 0–0 Madlenya MBABANE SWALLOWS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mbabane Swallows win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.913

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Mbabane Swallows win57%

Draw26%

Madlenya win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mbabane swallows winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Mbabane Swallows a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mbabane Swallows win	57%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Madlenya win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Mbabane Swallows or draw	83%	–	–
Mbabane Swallows clean sheet	51%	–	–
Madlenya clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 11.3 7.7 2.7 1 16.7 10.9 3.9 2 12.5 8.3 2.9 3 6.5 4.3 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mbabane Swallows down, Madlenya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,284 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 40.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mbabane Swallows at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Madlenya away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Mbabane Swallows, 0.69 for Madlenya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MBA 3–0 MAD · MAD 0–1 MBA · MBA 4–0 MAD · MAD 0–0 MBA

Form · last six in Premier League

MBABANE SWALLOWS

LDLDWL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

MADLENYA

LWWLDD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ubombo Sugar	2	+2	6
2	Highlanders	2	+3	4
3	Royal Leopards	2	+2	4
4	PPK Professionals	2	+2	4
5	Green Mamba	2	+2	4
6	Ezulwini United	2	+1	3
7	Moneni Pirates	2	0	3
8	Young Buffaloes	2	0	3
9	Nsingizini Hotspurs	2	0	3
10	Rangers FC	2	0	3
11	Amawele	3	−5	3
12	Madlenya	2	0	2
13	Manzini Sea Birds	2	−1	1
14	Tabankulu	3	−3	1
15	Mbabane Swallows	1	−1	0
16	Red Rhinos	1	−2	0