Green Mamba v Red Rhinos prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Green Mamba 5–2 Red Rhinos GREEN MAMBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Green Mamba win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.263

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Green Mamba are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Green Mamba 58%, draw 25%, Red Rhinos 17%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Green Mamba v Red RhinosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Green Mamba win58%

Draw25%

Red Rhinos win17%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Green Mamba

Red Rhinos

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Green Mamba	4	+3	7
14	Red Rhinos	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · green mamba winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Green Mamba a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Green Mamba v Red Rhinos~~1.60 – 0.69

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~4 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Green Mamba win	58%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Red Rhinos win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Green Mamba or draw	83%	–	–
Green Mamba clean sheet	51%	–	–
Red Rhinos clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.1%

0123450 10.7 7.3 2.6 1 16.1 10.8 3.9 2 12.5 8.4 3.0 3 6.8 4.5 4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Green Mamba down, Red Rhinos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,300 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Green Mamba at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Red Rhinos away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Green Mamba, 0.69 for Red Rhinos. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept

GREEN MAMBA

DWWL0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

RED RHINOS

LWDL1–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Leopards	4	+7	10
2	Moneni Pirates	4	+3	9
3	Ubombo Sugar	4	+2	9
4	Green Mamba	4	+3	7
5	Young Buffaloes	4	+1	7
6	Nsingizini Hotspurs	4	+1	7
7	Amawele	4	−4	6
8	Ezulwini United	4	+1	5
9	Mbabane Swallows	4	0	5
10	Highlanders	4	0	4
11	Madlenya	4	0	4
12	PPK Professionals	4	−1	4
13	Rangers FC	4	−1	4
14	Red Rhinos	4	−3	4
15	Manzini Sea Birds	4	−3	1
16	Tabankulu	4	−6	1