Green Mamba v Mbabane Swallows prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Green Mamba 0–1 Mbabane Swallows GREEN MAMBA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Green Mamba win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.836

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Green Mamba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Green Mamba 42%, draw 33%, Mbabane Swallows 25%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Green Mamba v Mbabane SwallowsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Green Mamba win42%

Draw33%

Mbabane Swallows win25%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Green Mamba

Mbabane Swallows

7Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Green Mamba	3	+4	7
14	Mbabane Swallows	3	−1	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · green mamba winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Green Mamba a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Green Mamba v Mbabane Swallows~~1.03 – 0.73

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 2~~2 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Green Mamba win	42%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Mbabane Swallows win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	52%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Green Mamba or draw	75%	–	–
Green Mamba clean sheet	49%	–	–
Mbabane Swallows clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.8%

0123450 17.8 12.5 4.6 1 17.6 12.4 4.6 2 9.0 6.4 2.4 3 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Green Mamba down, Mbabane Swallows across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,292 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Green Mamba at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mbabane Swallows away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Green Mamba, 0.73 for Mbabane Swallows. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MBA 0–0 GRE · GRE 1–0 MBA · GRE 1–1 MBA · MBA 1–0 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept

GREEN MAMBA

DWW0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

MBABANE SWALLOWS

LDD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Leopards	3	+4	7
2	Green Mamba	3	+4	7
3	Young Buffaloes	3	+1	6
4	Moneni Pirates	3	+1	6
5	Ubombo Sugar	3	+1	6
6	Ezulwini United	3	+1	4
7	Highlanders	3	+1	4
8	PPK Professionals	3	0	4
9	Nsingizini Hotspurs	3	0	4
10	Red Rhinos	3	−1	4
11	Madlenya	3	0	3
12	Rangers FC	3	−1	3
13	Amawele	3	−5	3
14	Mbabane Swallows	3	−1	2
15	Manzini Sea Birds	3	−2	1
16	Tabankulu	3	−3	1