Amawele v Madlenya prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 01:30

Amawele 1–0 Madlenya AMAWELE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Amawele win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.531

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Amawele are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Amawele 40%, draw 30%, Madlenya 30%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Amawele v MadlenyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

Amawele win40%

Draw30%

Madlenya win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Amawele

Madlenya

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Eswatini)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Amawele	4	−4	6
11	Madlenya	4	0	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · amawele winFirst published 21 Oct 15:31 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Amawele a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Amawele v Madlenya~~1.15 – 0.94

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D0 L2 · W0 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~7 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Amawele win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Madlenya win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Amawele or draw	70%	–	–
Amawele clean sheet	40%	–	–
Madlenya clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.3%

0123450 13.0 11.7 5.5 1 14.3 12.8 6.1 2 8.1 7.4 3.5 3 3.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Amawele down, Madlenya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,300 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.2% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Amawele at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Madlenya away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.15 goals for Amawele, 0.94 for Madlenya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AMA 0–1 MAD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 19 Sept

AMAWELE

LLWW0–3 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 1–0

MADLENYA

DDDD1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Royal Leopards	4	+7	10
2	Moneni Pirates	4	+3	9
3	Ubombo Sugar	4	+2	9
4	Green Mamba	4	+3	7
5	Young Buffaloes	4	+1	7
6	Nsingizini Hotspurs	4	+1	7
7	Amawele	4	−4	6
8	Ezulwini United	4	+1	5
9	Mbabane Swallows	4	0	5
10	Highlanders	4	0	4
11	Madlenya	4	0	4
12	PPK Professionals	4	−1	4
13	Rangers FC	4	−1	4
14	Red Rhinos	4	−3	4
15	Manzini Sea Birds	4	−3	1
16	Tabankulu	4	−6	1