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Tartu Kalev v Levadia U19

Tartu Kalev

0–2Full time

Levadia U19

Esiliiga B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Tartu Kalev 0–2 Levadia U19 TARTU KALEV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tartu Kalev win~~43%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.617

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tartu Kalev win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Tartu Kalev was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–21–37
1′KICK-OFF Tartu Kalev v Levadia U19
45′HALF-TIME Tartu Kalev 0–0 Levadia U19
46′SECOND HALF Tartu Kalev 0–0 Levadia U19
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Tartu Kalev 0–1 Levadia U19
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Tartu Kalev 0–2 Levadia U19
FTFULL TIME Tartu Kalev 0–2 Levadia U19
FTTartu Kalev 0–2 Levadia U19 · Tartu Kalev win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tartu Kalev win43%

Draw19%

Levadia U19 win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu kalev winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

43% The market37%

Us43%

~~Market~~37%

We make Tartu Kalev a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tartu kalev win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tartu Kalev win	43%	37%	+6
Draw	19%	23%	−3
Levadia U19 win	37%	40%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Both teams to score	72%	74%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	89%	89%	0
Over 3.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Tartu Kalev or draw	63%	60%	+3
Tartu Kalev clean sheet	16%	–	–
Levadia U19 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.5%

0123450 4.4 3.6 2.3 1 4.7 7.0 7.0 4.4 2.1 2 4.2 7.5 7.0 4.4 2.1 3 2.8 5.1 4.7 3.0 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tartu Kalev down, Levadia U19 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 515 Esiliiga B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.8% of games this season, across 151 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tartu Kalev at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Levadia U19 away: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Tartu Kalev, 1.89 for Levadia U19. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LEV 0–5 TAR · TAR 2–0 LEV · LEV 3–1 TAR

Form · last six in Esiliiga B

TARTU KALEV

DLLWWL1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–6

LEVADIA U19

WWLLWW5–2 · 6–2 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	30	+35	63
2	Levadia U19	31	+26	59
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	+3	54
4	Tulevik	31	+17	47
5	Tartu Kalev	30	+14	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	+33	46
7	Luunja	29	+11	46
8	JK Tabasalu	30	−37	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	31	−15	29
10	Legion	30	−87	12