Tartu Kalev v Johvi Phoenix prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

Tartu Kalev 4–0 Johvi Phoenix TARTU KALEV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tartu Kalev win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tartu Kalev are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tartu Kalev 51%, draw 18%, Johvi Phoenix 30%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Tartu Kalev v Johvi PhoenixBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tartu Kalev win51%

Draw18%

Johvi Phoenix win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 33

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tartu Kalev

Johvi Phoenix

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Esiliiga B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Tartu Kalev	32	+10	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu kalev winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Tartu Kalev a 51% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.8, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tartu Kalev v Johvi Phoenix~~2.34 – 1.77

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D0 L3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tartu Kalev win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tartu Kalev win	51%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Johvi Phoenix win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Tartu Kalev or draw	70%	–	–
Tartu Kalev clean sheet	18%	–	–
Johvi Phoenix clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 3.6 2.7 1 4.5 6.3 5.9 3.5 2 4.5 7.7 6.7 4.0 3 3.5 6.0 5.2 3.1 4 2.1 3.5 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tartu Kalev down, Johvi Phoenix across0–5 goals a side shown (95.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 524 Esiliiga B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.4% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tartu Kalev at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Johvi Phoenix away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for Tartu Kalev, 1.77 for Johvi Phoenix. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAR 0–3 JOH · JOH 3–2 TAR · JOH 4–3 TAR · JOH 3–1 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 6 Sept

TARTU KALEV

LWWLLL0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–6 · 0–2 · 0–2

JOHVI PHOENIX

LWWWLL2–6 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	32	+38	69
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Phoenix	32	0	54
4	Tulevik	33	+19	53
5	Luunja	32	+14	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	32	+10	47
8	JK Tabasalu	32	−39	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	32	−15	30
10	Legion	32	−88	13