Tallinna Kalev II v Parnu JK Vaprus U21 prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Tallinna Kalev II 1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win~~52%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.075

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.942

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 31–17–52
1′KICK-OFF Tallinna Kalev II v Parnu JK Vaprus U21
5′PENALTY MISSED · 4' Tallinna Kalev II
8′Tallinna Kalev II find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 31–18–51
14′Tallinna Kalev II find the net on 4′. 0–0. 0–0 · 31–19–51
21′Little has changed for our model: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 52% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 31–20–50
45′HALF-TIME Tallinna Kalev II 0–0 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
46′SECOND HALF Tallinna Kalev II 0–0 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Tallinna Kalev II 1–0 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
76′PENALTY MISSED · 76' Tallinna Kalev II
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tallinna Kalev II 1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
FTFULL TIME Tallinna Kalev II 1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21
FTTallinna Kalev II 1–1 Parnu JK Vaprus U21 · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Tallinna Kalev II win31%

Draw16%

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win52%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Tallinna Kalev II

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

8Days since last match23

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	+33	46
9	Tallinna Kalev II	31	−15	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · parnu jk vaprus u21 winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

52% The market41%

Us52%

~~Market~~41%

We make Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–3.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · parnu jk vaprus u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tallinna Kalev II win	31%	38%	−7
Draw	16%	21%	−5
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win	52%	41%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	89%	82%	+8
Both teams to score	84%	82%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	96%	93%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	77%	68%	+9
Tallinna Kalev II or draw	48%	59%	−11
Tallinna Kalev II clean sheet	6%	–	–
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 5.7%

0123450 2.3 2.2 1 3.3 5.1 4.9 3.7 2.22 4.0 5.7 5.6 4.2 2.53 3.1 4.4 4.3 3.2 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tallinna Kalev II down, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 517 Esiliiga B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.4% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tallinna Kalev II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Parnu JK Vaprus U21 away: 3.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.34 goals for Tallinna Kalev II, 2.99 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PAR 7–0 TAL · PAR 2–2 TAL · TAL 2–3 PAR

Form · last six in Esiliiga B

TALLINNA KALEV II

WLWLLW2–1 · 0–7 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 3–1

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21

WWWLLW6–0 · 5–1 · 7–0 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 12–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	30	+35	63
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	+3	54
4	Tulevik	32	+18	50
5	Tartu Kalev	31	+12	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	+33	46
7	Luunja	29	+11	46
8	JK Tabasalu	30	−37	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	31	−15	29
10	Legion	31	−88	12