Tallinna Kalev II v Luunja prediction · Esiliiga B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tallinna Kalev IIDrawLuunja

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Luunja 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Luunja are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tallinna Kalev II 34%, draw 18%, Luunja 48%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Tallinna Kalev II v LuunjaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Tallinna Kalev II win34%

Draw18%

Luunja win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 34

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tallinna Kalev II

Luunja

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Luunja	33	+25	56
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luunja winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Luunja a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.5, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tallinna Kalev II v Luunja~~2.05 – 2.47

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 30 v 56~~9 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Luunja win

Published at 44%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tallinna Kalev II win	34%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Luunja win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	65%	–	–
Tallinna Kalev II or draw	52%	–	–
Tallinna Kalev II clean sheet	9%	–	–
Luunja clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.7%

0123450 3.3 3.4 2.8 1 2.8 5.3 6.7 5.4 3.4 2 2.4 5.6 6.7 5.4 3.4 3 3.8 4.6 3.7 2.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tallinna Kalev II down, Luunja across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 530 Esiliiga B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tallinna Kalev II at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Luunja away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Tallinna Kalev II, 2.47 for Luunja. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LUU 5–4 TAL · TAL 0–1 LUU · LUU 3–2 TAL · LUU 4–5 TAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept

TALLINNA KALEV II

WLLWDL4–1 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

LUUNJA

WLLWWW3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 11–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	33	+38	70
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Phoenix	34	0	57
4	Luunja	33	+25	56
5	Tulevik	33	+19	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	+13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	−38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	34	−103	13