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Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v Tulevik

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

2–3Full time

Tulevik

Esiliiga B · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:16

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–3 Tulevik PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win~~63%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.020

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.882

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–15–22
1′KICK-OFF Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v Tulevik
3′Parnu JK Vaprus U21 find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–11–11
3′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–11–11
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1–0 Tulevik
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 78% now
7′A goal for Tulevik on 7′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 61–16–23
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1–1 Tulevik
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 61% now
10′PENALTY MISSED · 10' Parnu JK Vaprus U21
11′Parnu JK Vaprus U21 score on 11′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 77–12–11
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–1 Tulevik
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 77% now
13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Parnu JK Vaprus U21
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 60% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 5.1 we expected. 1–1 · 57–20–23
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
45′HALF-TIME Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1–2 Tulevik
46′Tulevik score on 45′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 27–25–48
46′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–2 · 27–25–48
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1–2 Tulevik
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 27% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Tulevik win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win 27%)
46′SECOND HALF Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1–2 Tulevik
49′Parnu JK Vaprus U21 find the net on 49′. 2–2. 2–2 · 50–27–23
49′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 50%. 2–2 · 50–27–23
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–2 Tulevik
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 50% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Tulevik win 23%)
52′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 2–2 · 49–28–23
54′A goal for Tulevik on 53′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 22–26–52
54′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–3 · 22–26–52
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–3 Tulevik
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 22% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Tulevik win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win 22%)
59′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–3 · 19–26–54
66′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–3 · 14–27–59
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
73′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–25–65
80′We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–21–75
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–3 Tulevik
FTParnu JK Vaprus U21 2–3 Tulevik · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 63%, draw 15%, Tulevik 22%. Over 2.5 goals 88%, both teams to score 81%.

The AI’s read on Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v TulevikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win63%

Draw15%

Tulevik win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 33

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

Tulevik

3Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 10 Oct · Esiliiga B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	32	+34	50
6	Tulevik	32	+18	50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · parnu jk vaprus u21 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:45 · locked at kick-off

63% The market55%

Us63%

~~Market~~55%

We make Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v Tulevik~~3.19 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 50~~5 v 6

~~The market · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win~~55% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 63% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win	63%	55%	+8
Draw	15%	19%	−4
Tulevik win	22%	26%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Both teams to score	81%	80%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	96%	94%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	74%	69%	+5
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 or draw	78%	74%	+4
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 clean sheet	15%	–	–
Tulevik clean sheet	5%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.0%

0123450 1 2.4 3.6 3.6 2.3 2 3.2 5.8 5.5 3.5 3 3.3 6.0 5.7 3.7 4 2.6 4.8 4.5 2.9 5 3.1 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Parnu JK Vaprus U21 down, Tulevik across0–5 goals a side shown (87.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 523 Esiliiga B matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.2% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 5.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at home: 4.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tulevik away: 2.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.19 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, 1.93 for Tulevik. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PAR 2–2 TUL · TUL 3–1 PAR · TUL 5–3 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 5 Sept

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21

WLLWDW7–0 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 12–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

TULEVIK

WLWWLW3–0 · 2–3 · 5–3 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	32	+38	69
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Phoenix	32	0	54
4	Luunja	32	+14	53
5	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	32	+34	50
6	Tulevik	32	+18	50
7	Tartu Kalev	32	+10	47
8	JK Tabasalu	32	−39	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	32	−15	30
10	Legion	32	−88	13