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Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v JK Tabasalu

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

2–1Full time

JK Tabasalu

Esiliiga B · WED 14 OCT

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 18:46

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–1 JK Tabasalu PARNU JK VAPRUS U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win~~81%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.055

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.105

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win at 81%.
1′Much as we predicted: Parnu JK Vaprus U21 was 81% before kick-off and our model makes it 81% now. 0–0 · 81–10–8
1′KICK-OFF Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v JK Tabasalu
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 1–0 JK Tabasalu
13′Parnu JK Vaprus U21 find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 91–6–3
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 81% at kick-off, 91% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 81% at kick-off, 90% now
22′A goal for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on 22′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–1
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–0 JK Tabasalu
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 81% at kick-off, 97% now
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Parnu JK Vaprus U21
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 81% at kick-off, 90% now
36′A goal for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on 36′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–1
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–0 JK Tabasalu
37′We published Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 81%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–1
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 81% at kick-off, 97% now
39′Goals are coming at about the 5.1 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–1
45′HALF-TIME Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–0 JK Tabasalu
46′S. Smirnov scores for Parnu JK Vaprus U21 on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–1
46′SECOND HALF Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–0 JK Tabasalu
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–1 JK Tabasalu
58′57′ and it is 2–1: JK Tabasalu have scored. 2–1 · 87–10–3
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 81% at kick-off, 87% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: 81% at kick-off, 91% now
83′We published Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at 81%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
FTFULL TIME Parnu JK Vaprus U21 2–1 JK Tabasalu
FTParnu JK Vaprus U21 2–1 JK Tabasalu · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v JK TabasaluBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win81%

Draw10%

JK Tabasalu win9%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

JK Tabasalu

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	31	33	47
8	JK Tabasalu	31	-38	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · parnu jk vaprus u21 winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

81% The market74%

Us81%

~~Market~~74%

We make Parnu JK Vaprus U21 a 81% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 v JK Tabasalu~~3.81 – 1.31

~~Last six in Esiliiga B~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 47 v 33~~6 v 8

~~The market · Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win~~74% · ours 81%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · parnu jk vaprus u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win	81%	74%	+7
Draw	10%	14%	−4
JK Tabasalu win	9%	12%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Both teams to score	70%	72%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	96%	93%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 or draw	91%	88%	+3
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 clean sheet	28%	–	–
JK Tabasalu clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 6.9%

0123450 1 2.7 2.9 2.1 2 4.5 5.7 3.7 3 5.5 6.9 4.5 2.0 4 5.2 6.5 4.2 5 4.0 4.9 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Parnu JK Vaprus U21 down, JK Tabasalu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 520 Esiliiga B matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.5% of games this season, across 156 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 6.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 at home: 4.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). JK Tabasalu away: 0.67 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.81 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus U21, 1.31 for JK Tabasalu. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PAR 6–0 JKT · JKT 2–8 PAR · JKT 1–2 PAR

Form · last six in Esiliiga B

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21

WWLLWD5–1 · 7–0 · 2–3 · 0–4 · 12–0 · 1–1

JK TABASALU

LWLDLL0–4 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	31	36	66
2	Levadia U19	32	28	62
3	Phoenix	31	2	54
4	Tulevik	32	18	50
5	Luunja	31	12	50
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	31	33	47
7	Tartu Kalev	31	12	47
8	JK Tabasalu	31	-38	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	32	-15	30
10	Legion	32	-88	13