Narva U21 v Tulevik prediction · Esiliiga B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Narva U21DrawTulevik

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Narva U21 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Narva U21 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Narva U21 61%, draw 19%, Tulevik 21%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Narva U21 v TulevikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Narva U21 win61%

Draw19%

Tulevik win21%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 34

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Narva U21

Tulevik

6Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 17 Oct · Esiliiga B

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · narva u21 winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Narva U21 a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Narva U21 v Tulevik~~2.23 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 70 v 53~~1 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Narva U21 win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Narva U21 win	61%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Tulevik win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Narva U21 or draw	79%	–	–
Narva U21 clean sheet	30%	–	–
Tulevik clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 2.9 4.6 2.4 1 7.9 8.0 5.1 2.1 2 7.9 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 5.9 6.9 4.2 4 3.3 3.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Narva U21 down, Tulevik across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 530 Esiliiga B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Narva U21 at home: 2.33 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tulevik away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Narva U21, 1.21 for Tulevik. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TUL 3–3 NAR · NAR 2–1 TUL · TUL 0–1 NAR · NAR 4–2 TUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept

NARVA U21

WWWWWD1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

TULEVIK

LWWLWW2–3 · 5–3 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	33	+38	70
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Phoenix	34	0	57
4	Luunja	33	+25	56
5	Tulevik	33	+19	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	+13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	−38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	34	−103	13