Narva U21 v Tartu Kalev prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 19:30

Narva U21 2–0 Tartu Kalev NARVA U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Narva U21 win~~60%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.146

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Narva U21 win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Narva U21 was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–20–20
1′KICK-OFF Narva U21 v Tartu Kalev
21′Narva U21 score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–7
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Narva U21 1–0 Tartu Kalev
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Narva U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
22′We published Narva U21 at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–14–7
26′21′: I. Elysee on the scoresheet for Narva U21, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–14–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 80–14–6
45′HALF-TIME Narva U21 1–0 Tartu Kalev
46′SECOND HALF Narva U21 1–0 Tartu Kalev
52′Narva U21 find the net on 51′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Narva U21 2–0 Tartu Kalev
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Narva U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
53′GOAL DISALLOWED · 53' Narva U21
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Narva U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 81% now
54′Narva U21 find the net on 53′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
54′We published Narva U21 at 60%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Narva U21 2–0 Tartu Kalev
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Narva U21 win: 60% at kick-off, 96% now
82′We published Narva U21 at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Narva U21 win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
FTFULL TIME Narva U21 2–0 Tartu Kalev
FTNarva U21 2–0 Tartu Kalev · Narva U21 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Narva U21 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Narva U21 60%, draw 19%, Tartu Kalev 21%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Narva U21 v Tartu KalevBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Narva U21 win60%

Draw19%

Tartu Kalev win21%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Narva U21

Tartu Kalev

4Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · narva u21 winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

60% The market69%

Us60%

~~Market~~69%

We make Narva U21 a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Narva U21 v Tartu Kalev~~2.15 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 29 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 66 v 47~~1 v 7

~~The market · Narva U21 win~~69% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Narva U21 win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Narva U21 win	60%	69%	−9
Draw	19%	16%	+3
Tartu Kalev win	21%	15%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	64%	75%	−11
Both teams to score	59%	65%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	83%	88%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	42%	56%	−14
Narva U21 or draw	79%	85%	−6
Narva U21 clean sheet	32%	–	–
Tartu Kalev clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.2 5.1 2.6 1 8.6 8.3 5.2 2.1 2 8.3 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 5.9 6.7 3.9 4 3.3 3.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Narva U21 down, Tartu Kalev across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 521 Esiliiga B matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.6% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Narva U21 at home: 2.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tartu Kalev away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Narva U21, 1.17 for Tartu Kalev. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAR 0–1 NAR · NAR 3–2 TAR · TAR 3–0 NAR · NAR 6–1 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 29 Aug

NARVA U21

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

TARTU KALEV

LLWWLL0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–6 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	31	+36	66
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Phoenix	31	+2	54
4	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	32	+34	50
5	Tulevik	32	+18	50
6	Luunja	31	+12	50
7	Tartu Kalev	31	+12	47
8	JK Tabasalu	32	−39	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	32	−15	30
10	Legion	32	−88	13