Luunja v Legion prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Luunja 11–0 Legion LUUNJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Luunja win~~85%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.033

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Luunja win at 85%.
1′Much as we predicted: Luunja was 85% before kick-off and our model makes it 85% now. 0–0 · 85–8–7
1′KICK-OFF Luunja v Legion
4′A goal for Luunja on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–5–2
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Luunja 1–0 Legion
6′Luunja score on 6′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–1
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Luunja 2–0 Legion
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Luunja win: 85% at kick-off, 98% now
7′We published Luunja at 85%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–1
15′Luunja find the net on 14′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Luunja 3–0 Legion
25′We published Luunja at 85%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
34′A goal for Luunja on 34′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Luunja 4–0 Legion
37′Luunja score on 36′ to make it 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Luunja 5–0 Legion
38′That is 5, and we only asked for 5.0 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
40′Luunja find the net on 40′. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Luunja 6–0 Legion
41′6 goals already, more than the 5.0 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
44′Luunja ahead on 39′ through R. Silov. 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Luunja 6–0 Legion
46′SECOND HALF Luunja 6–0 Legion
51′A goal for Luunja on 51′ — 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
51′That is 7, and we only asked for 5.0 across ninety minutes. 7–0 · 100–0–0
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Luunja 7–0 Legion
63′Luunja score on 63′ to make it 8–0. 8–0 · 100–0–0
63′8 goals already, more than the 5.0 we expected for the whole match. 8–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Luunja 8–0 Legion
66′Luunja score on 62′ to make it 8–0. 8–0 · 100–0–0
71′Luunja find the net on 71′. 9–0. 9–0 · 100–0–0
71′That is 9, and we only asked for 5.0 across ninety minutes. 9–0 · 100–0–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Luunja 9–0 Legion
74′A goal for Luunja on 73′ — 10–0. 10–0 · 100–0–0
74′10 goals already, more than the 5.0 we expected for the whole match. 10–0 · 100–0–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Luunja 10–0 Legion
91′Luunja score on 90′ to make it 11–0. 11–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90' Luunja 11–0 Legion
FTFULL TIME Luunja 11–0 Legion
FTLuunja 11–0 Legion · Luunja win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Luunja are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Luunja 85%, draw 8%, Legion 6%. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Luunja v LegionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Luunja win85%

Draw8%

Legion win6%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 33

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Luunja

Legion

4Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 10 Oct · Esiliiga B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Luunja	32	+14	53
10	Legion	32	−88	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luunja winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

85% The market–

Us85%

We make Luunja an 85% chance to win. The model expects 3.9–1.1, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Luunja v Legion~~3.93 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 53 v 13~~5 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Luunja win

Published at 84%, 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Luunja win	85%	–	–
Draw	8%	–	–
Legion win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	86%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	72%	–	–
Luunja or draw	94%	–	–
Luunja clean sheet	35%	–	–
Legion clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.0%

0123450 1 3.2 2.8 2 5.4 5.6 3.0 3 6.8 7.0 3.8 4 6.5 6.7 3.6 5 5.1 5.2 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Luunja down, Legion across0–5 goals a side shown (78.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 526 Esiliiga B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.6% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Luunja at home: 2.67 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Legion away: 1.00 scored, 5.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.93 goals for Luunja, 1.06 for Legion. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LUU 12–0 LEG · LEG 1–2 LUU · LUU 5–1 LEG · LEG 0–2 LUU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 5 Sept

LUUNJA

LWLLWW2–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1

LEGION

LDLLLL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–12 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	32	+38	69
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Phoenix	33	−4	54
4	Tulevik	33	+19	53
5	Luunja	32	+14	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	33	+14	50
8	JK Tabasalu	32	−39	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	32	−88	13