Levadia U19 v Tallinna Kalev II prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31

Levadia U19 3–1 Tallinna Kalev II LEVADIA U19 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Levadia U19 win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Levadia U19 win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Levadia U19 was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 68–15–17
1′KICK-OFF Levadia U19 v Tallinna Kalev II
28′Levadia U19 find the net on 27′. 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
28′We published Levadia U19 at 68%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Levadia U19 1–0 Tallinna Kalev II
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Levadia U19 win: 68% at kick-off, 82% now
45′A goal for Levadia U19 on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′We published Levadia U19 at 68%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′Goals are coming at about the 4.4 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Levadia U19 2–0 Tallinna Kalev II
45′HALF-TIME Levadia U19 2–0 Tallinna Kalev II
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Levadia U19 win: 68% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SECOND HALF Levadia U19 2–0 Tallinna Kalev II
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Levadia U19 win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
76′Levadia U19 score on 76′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′We published Levadia U19 at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Levadia U19 3–0 Tallinna Kalev II
90′Tallinna Kalev II find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Levadia U19 3–1 Tallinna Kalev II
FTFULL TIME Levadia U19 3–1 Tallinna Kalev II
FTLevadia U19 3–1 Tallinna Kalev II · Levadia U19 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levadia U19 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levadia U19 68%, draw 15%, Tallinna Kalev II 17%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Levadia U19 v Tallinna Kalev IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Levadia U19 win68%

Draw15%

Tallinna Kalev II win17%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 33

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levadia U19

Tallinna Kalev II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 11 Oct · Esiliiga B

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
9	Tallinna Kalev II	32	−15	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levadia u19 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Levadia U19 a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levadia U19 v Tallinna Kalev II~~2.94 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 6 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 62 v 30~~2 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levadia U19 win	68%	–	–
Draw	15%	–	–
Tallinna Kalev II win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	71%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Levadia U19 or draw	83%	–	–
Levadia U19 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Tallinna Kalev II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.4 1 4.3 5.0 3.8 2 5.5 7.6 5.4 2.6 3 5.2 7.3 5.2 2.6 4 3.9 5.4 3.9 5 2.3 3.2 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Levadia U19 down, Tallinna Kalev II across0–5 goals a side shown (91.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 524 Esiliiga B matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.4% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levadia U19 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tallinna Kalev II away: 1.33 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.94 goals for Levadia U19, 1.44 for Tallinna Kalev II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LEV 4–1 TAL · TAL 1–1 LEV · TAL 0–5 LEV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 6 Sept

LEVADIA U19

WLLWWW6–2 · 0–1 · 3–5 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

TALLINNA KALEV II

LWLLWD0–7 · 4–1 · 3–4 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	32	+38	69
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Phoenix	33	−4	54
4	Tulevik	33	+19	53
5	Luunja	32	+14	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	33	+14	50
8	JK Tabasalu	32	−39	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	32	−15	30
10	Legion	32	−88	13