Levadia U19 v Parnu JK Vaprus U21 prediction · Esiliiga B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Levadia U19DrawParnu JK Vaprus U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Levadia U19 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Levadia U19 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Levadia U19 54%, draw 17%, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 29%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 79%.

The AI’s read on Levadia U19 v Parnu JK Vaprus U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Levadia U19 win54%

Draw17%

Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win29%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 34

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Levadia U19

Parnu JK Vaprus U21

8Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 17 Oct · Esiliiga B

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · levadia u19 winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Levadia U19 a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Levadia U19 v Parnu JK Vaprus U21~~2.69 – 1.96

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 65 v 50~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Levadia U19 win	54%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	79%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	67%	–	–
Levadia U19 or draw	71%	–	–
Levadia U19 clean sheet	15%	–	–
Parnu JK Vaprus U21 clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.7%

0123450 2.4 1 3.1 4.8 4.9 3.2 2 3.6 6.7 6.4 4.2 2.1 3 3.1 5.9 5.6 3.7 4 2.1 4.0 3.8 2.5 5 2.2 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Levadia U19 down, Parnu JK Vaprus U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (92.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 528 Esiliiga B matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.3% of games this season, across 164 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Levadia U19 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Parnu JK Vaprus U21 away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.69 goals for Levadia U19, 1.96 for Parnu JK Vaprus U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PAR 2–3 LEV · PAR 4–2 LEV · LEV 2–0 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept

LEVADIA U19

LLWWWW0–1 · 3–5 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

PARNU JK VAPRUS U21

LLWDWL2–3 · 0–4 · 12–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	33	+38	70
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Phoenix	34	0	57
4	Luunja	33	+25	56
5	Tulevik	33	+19	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	+13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	−38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	34	−103	13