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Legion v Tulevik

Legion

1–2Full time

Tulevik

Esiliiga B · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Legion 1–2 Tulevik TULEVIK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Tulevik win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.155

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tulevik win at 68%.
1′1′ and it is 0–1: Tulevik have scored. 0–1 · 7–9–84
1′KICK-OFF Legion v Tulevik
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Tulevik win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Legion 1–1 Tulevik
12′Legion find the net on 2′. 1–1. 1–1 · 17–17–66
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Tulevik win: 68% at kick-off, 66% now
23′A goal for Tulevik on 22′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–11–83
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Legion 1–2 Tulevik
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Tulevik win: 68% at kick-off, 83% now
32′We said Tulevik at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–2 · 6–12–82
45′HALF-TIME Legion 1–2 Tulevik
46′SECOND HALF Legion 1–2 Tulevik
66′PENALTY MISSED · 66' Legion
FTFULL TIME Legion 1–2 Tulevik
FTLegion 1–2 Tulevik · Tulevik win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Legion win18%

Draw14%

Tulevik win68%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tulevik winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Tulevik a 68% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–3.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Legion win	18%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Tulevik win	68%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	72%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Legion or draw	32%	–	–
Legion clean sheet	5%	–	–
Tulevik clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.0%

0123450 3.7 4.9 4.9 3.8 2.51 2.1 4.5 7.0 6.9 5.3 3.42 3.8 5.3 5.1 3.8 2.43 2.8 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Legion down, Tulevik across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 515 Esiliiga B matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.8% of games this season, across 151 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.71 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Legion at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tulevik away: 2.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Legion, 3.08 for Tulevik. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~1 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TUL 3–0 LEG · LEG 0–3 TUL · TUL 5–0 LEG · TUL 0–1 LEG

Form · last six in Esiliiga B

LEGION

LLDLLL0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–12 · 1–2 · 0–3

TULEVIK

LWLWWL1–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 5–3 · 6–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	30	+35	63
2	Levadia U19	31	+26	59
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	+3	54
4	Tulevik	31	+17	47
5	Tartu Kalev	30	+14	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	+33	46
7	Luunja	29	+11	46
8	JK Tabasalu	30	−37	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	31	−15	29
10	Legion	30	−87	12