Legion v Johvi Phoenix prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 13:21

Legion 0–4 Johvi Phoenix JOHVI PHOENIX WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Johvi Phoenix win~~68%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.157

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.070

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Johvi Phoenix win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Johvi Phoenix was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 18–15–68
1′KICK-OFF Legion v Johvi Phoenix
11′Johvi Phoenix score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 8–11–82
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Legion 0–1 Johvi Phoenix
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Johvi Phoenix win: 68% at kick-off, 82% now
12′We published Johvi Phoenix at 68%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 8–11–82
14′Johvi Phoenix find the net on 14′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–5–92
14′We published Johvi Phoenix at 68%. Our model now makes it 92%. 0–2 · 3–5–92
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Legion 0–2 Johvi Phoenix
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Johvi Phoenix win: 68% at kick-off, 92% now
23′A goal for Johvi Phoenix on 22′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–98
23′We published Johvi Phoenix at 68%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 1–2–98
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Legion 0–3 Johvi Phoenix
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Johvi Phoenix win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME Legion 0–3 Johvi Phoenix
46′SECOND HALF Legion 0–3 Johvi Phoenix
51′Goals are coming at about the 4.6 we expected. 0–3 · 0–1–99
65′We published Johvi Phoenix at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
67′Johvi Phoenix score on 67′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Legion 0–4 Johvi Phoenix
FTFULL TIME Legion 0–4 Johvi Phoenix
FTLegion 0–4 Johvi Phoenix · Johvi Phoenix win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Johvi Phoenix are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Legion 18%, draw 14%, Johvi Phoenix 68%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Legion v Johvi PhoenixBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Legion win18%

Draw14%

Johvi Phoenix win68%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 34

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Legion

Johvi Phoenix

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga B

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Legion	33	−99	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · johvi phoenix winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

68% The market78%

Us68%

~~Market~~78%

We make Johvi Phoenix a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–3.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Legion v Johvi Phoenix~~1.52 – 3.07

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W3 D0 L3

~~The market · Johvi Phoenix win~~78% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Johvi Phoenix win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Legion win	18%	9%	+9
Draw	14%	12%	+2
Johvi Phoenix win	68%	78%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Both teams to score	73%	66%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	93%	93%	0
Over 3.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Legion or draw	32%	22%	+10
Legion clean sheet	5%	–	–
Johvi Phoenix clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.0%

0123450 3.7 4.9 4.9 3.8 2.41 2.0 4.5 7.0 7.0 5.3 3.32 3.7 5.3 5.2 3.9 2.43 2.8 2.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Legion down, Johvi Phoenix across0–5 goals a side shown (89.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 528 Esiliiga B matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.3% of games this season, across 164 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Legion at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Johvi Phoenix away: 2.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Legion, 3.07 for Johvi Phoenix. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEG 0–1 JOH · JOH 6–1 LEG · JOH 2–1 LEG · JOH 6–1 LEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept

LEGION

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–12 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–11

JOHVI PHOENIX

WWWLLL3–2 · 4–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	33	+38	70
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Luunja	33	+25	56
4	Phoenix	33	−4	54
5	Tulevik	33	+19	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	33	+14	50
8	JK Tabasalu	33	−39	34
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	33	−99	13