Johvi Phoenix v Tulevik prediction · Esiliiga B

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Johvi PhoenixDrawTulevik

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Johvi Phoenix 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Johvi Phoenix are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Johvi Phoenix 48%, draw 18%, Tulevik 34%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Johvi Phoenix v TulevikBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Johvi Phoenix win48%

Draw18%

Tulevik win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 35

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Johvi Phoenix

Tulevik

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 17 Oct · Esiliiga B

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Tulevik	33	+19	53

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · johvi phoenix winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Johvi Phoenix a 48% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Johvi Phoenix v Tulevik~~2.41 – 2.03

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Johvi Phoenix win	48%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Tulevik win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	77%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Johvi Phoenix or draw	66%	–	–
Johvi Phoenix clean sheet	14%	–	–
Tulevik clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 6.8%

0123450 3.0 2.5 1 3.4 5.5 5.8 3.9 2.0 2 3.5 6.8 6.7 4.5 2.3 3 2.8 5.4 5.4 3.6 4 3.3 3.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Johvi Phoenix down, Tulevik across0–5 goals a side shown (93.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 530 Esiliiga B matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.14 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Johvi Phoenix at home: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tulevik away: 2.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for Johvi Phoenix, 2.03 for Tulevik. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.14

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TUL 0–0 JOH · TUL 4–2 JOH · JOH 5–4 TUL · JOH 2–1 TUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept

JOHVI PHOENIX

WWLLLW4–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 4–0

TULEVIK

LWWLWW2–3 · 5–3 · 6–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	33	+38	70
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Phoenix	34	0	57
4	Luunja	33	+25	56
5	Tulevik	33	+19	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	34	+13	50
8	JK Tabasalu	34	−38	37
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	34	−103	13