Johvi Phoenix v Narva U21 prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

Johvi Phoenix 0–1 Narva U21 NARVA U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Narva U21 win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.463

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Narva U21 win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Narva U21 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 36–22–42
1′KICK-OFF Johvi Phoenix v Narva U21
15′Little has changed for our model: Narva U21 43% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 35–24–41
45′HALF-TIME Johvi Phoenix 0–0 Narva U21
46′SECOND HALF Johvi Phoenix 0–0 Narva U21
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Johvi Phoenix 0–0 Narva U21
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Johvi Phoenix 0–1 Narva U21
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Johvi Phoenix 0–1 Narva U21
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Johvi Phoenix 0–1 Narva U21
FTFULL TIME Johvi Phoenix 0–1 Narva U21
FTJohvi Phoenix 0–1 Narva U21 · Narva U21 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Johvi Phoenix win37%

Draw20%

Narva U21 win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Johvi Phoenix

Narva U21

22Days since last match15

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	30	+35	63
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	+3	54

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · narva u21 winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

43% The market45%

Us43%

~~Market~~45%

We make Narva U21 a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · narva u21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Johvi Phoenix win	37%	34%	+3
Draw	20%	22%	−1
Narva U21 win	43%	45%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	68%	78%	−9
Both teams to score	67%	76%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	86%	91%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	47%	60%	−12
Johvi Phoenix or draw	57%	55%	+2
Johvi Phoenix clean sheet	16%	–	–
Narva U21 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.4 6.2 5.0 3.1 1 5.6 8.2 8.1 5.0 2.4 2 4.1 7.4 6.7 4.2 2.0 3 2.4 4.2 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Johvi Phoenix down, Narva U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 517 Esiliiga B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.4% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.73 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Johvi Phoenix at home: 3.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Narva U21 away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Johvi Phoenix, 1.87 for Narva U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.73

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~NAR 1–0 JOH · NAR 1–1 JOH · JOH 4–2 NAR · JOH 1–0 NAR

Form · last six in Esiliiga B

JOHVI PHOENIX

WWLWWW3–2 · 3–0 · 2–6 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 3–2

NARVA U21

WWWWWW4–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	30	+35	63
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	+3	54
4	Tulevik	32	+18	50
5	Tartu Kalev	31	+12	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	+33	46
7	Luunja	29	+11	46
8	JK Tabasalu	30	−37	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	31	−15	29
10	Legion	31	−88	12